Fiesta Bowl CFP Quarterfinal Picks: Penn State vs. Boise State

We have made it to the second round of the College Football Playoff, and this is where the matchups are going to start to get good, hopefully. I must admit, like the rest of you, a majority of that first round of games were very boring. It was blowout after blowout, with nearly zero resistance from the underdogs at all. Now, we should get some more competitive games here in the second round, but this first one is certainly not lined that way at the books.

Penn State is the No. 6 seed in these playoffs and will face off with the No. 3 seed Boise State in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl. You would think the higher seed would be favored in the game, as that would make sense, right? Well, you would be wrong. In fact, the Nittany Lions are a gigantic 11-point favorite against the Broncos. It’s quite obvious that the bookmakers think Penn State, despite one more loss, is a vastly superior team to Boise State due to the conference they play in. At -11, it is clear they hold the Big Ten in high regard when compared to the Mountain West.

After that first round, many are probably inclined to agree with them, and will insist that strength of schedule should be a very important factor in determining who gets into the CFP in the future. To be fair, Boise State played two ranked teams over the course of their season before the playoff began. They beat No. 20 UNLV in the MWC Championship 21-7, and lost 37-34 to the No. 1 seeded Oregon Ducks way back on September 7.

Penn State is getting a lot of love, but played just one more game in their season against a ranked team than Boise did. They defeated No. 19 Illinois 21-7, lost 20-13 to No. 4 Ohio State, and lost 45-37 to No. 1 Oregon. They went 1-2 against ranked teams, while Boise State went 1-1 in their opportunities.

Right now over at DraftKings Sportsbook, 56% of the handle is on Penn State -11. On the moneyline, it is more of the same, with 62% of the cash on the Nittany Lions. This is less than shocking, as the favorites are typically going to get a ton of cash from recreational bettors. However, I expect them to come in much more on Penn State when we get closer to kickoff, and as of this writing, we are still days away.

Personally, I don’t trust Penn State head coach James Franklin in this situation. He is notorious for falling flat on his face in big games, and while Boise State wouldn’t be the typical opponent for him to do that, he’s a double-digit favorite here. They were actually a shorter favorite against SMU last round at -8.5, and destroyed them. This feels like a spot where you want to fade them, certainly on the spread at this kind of large number.

I like Boise State +11, or anything at double-digits really. Not only that, but I nibbled on the moneyline at huge +350 odds for the Broncos to pull the upset. I think we are going to get one upset at least this round of the playoffs after that chalky first round where every favorite won and covered. RB Ashton Jeanty is a goldmine of publicity for college football, and wouldn’t it be just fitting to see him go off and create even more headlines for them? Sometimes, the story is just right there in front of you to write itself.

Best Bets: Boise State +11 (-110, DraftKings), Boise State ML (+350, BetMGM)