Dan Karpuc: FIU +5 vs. UConn
UConn beat Fresno State as a 23-point underdog last week which, as someone who lives in Connecticut, was one of the most shocking outcomes of the college football season. Not only are the Huskies awful, but they were decimated by injuries heading into that contest. Nonetheless, that upset encouraged oddsmakers to make UConn a four-point road favorite at FIU this week, which is a mistake on their part. FIU is coming off a 21-7 win at New Mexico State and it seems like their odds reflect the fact that they lost 73-0 to Western Kentucky the week before and not that they responded with a road win in their next opportunity. BetQL agrees and actually projects FIU to win this game outright. A supporting trend to note: under coach Mike MacIntyre, FIU has gone 6-1 SU (+8.95 units, 89.5% ROI) against bad teams that get outscored by 10+ points per game on the season (the Huskies have been outscored by an average of 26.0 points per contest).
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Lucy Burdge: Ohio State -25.5 at Michigan State
Ohio State is 5-0 SU and 2-2-1 ATS this season, while Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in three straight games, so I see Ohio State covering this spread here. They pushed the 39-point spread against Rutgers last week and covered a 19-point spread the week before that and a 31-point spread the week prior to that. Ohio State has shown they can cover a large spread and I think they can do it again here against Michigan State.
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Brad Pinkerton: Auburn-Georgia Under 50.5
Oddsmakers are generally pretty accurate on Georgia totals, so I think this one will be right around this number, but I'm still leaning heavily toward the under, which is a perfect 5-0 in Bulldogs games this season. Plus, 50.5 is a relatively high number for Auburn (2-3 O/U), which has cleared that total only twice so far, thanks to allowing 21 or fewer points in all but one game and averaging a shade over 15 points per game in their last three. With the Bulldogs D looking to make a statement after allowing 22 points in back-to-back games, including a close call last week at Mizzou, I think defense is the theme of this game.
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