Big Will Bets: Weekend Winners - Bowl Game Recap

Welcome Back to Big Will Bets: Weekend Winners, and we basically came out even on our Bowl bets. Now you might be thinking, but Big Will, you went 2-3 in your bowl bets because Texas A&M played only three quarters and Colorado didn’t show up to Texas. You definitely didn’t make money because you lost more bets than you won. And normally you would be right, but I bet BYU moneyline. BYU being the +155 underdog helped get us close to being even, about which I was ecstatic. Now, let’s jump into the winners and losers from these bowl bets.

WINNERS 

Pop-Tarts Bowl: Iowa State 42, Miami 41

My Pick: Over 56.5.

I expect points, points, and more points in this bowl game. A shootout in the Pop-Tarts Bowl just seems to fit, doesn’t it?

This was the second easiest bet that I hit over Bowl season. The over hit easily in the second quarter, and I never had any fear that the over wouldn’t cash. The Pop-Tarts Bowl had everything. It was a close game. Both teams scored a lot of points, and a Pop-Tart was sacrificed to appease the victors' hunger after the game. The European mind can’t comprehend the Pop-Tarts Bowl, but thankfully for you, I always knew it would go over.

Alamo Bowl: BYU 36, Colorado 14

My Pick: BYU ML

This game is going to be decided by BYU’s defense and Colorado’s offense. The Cougars’ defense has relied all year on being opportunistic in key spots and forcing turnovers. BYU is going to have to do that in San Antonio if they want any chance to win this football game. Now, the bright side is that Sanders has been sacked 39 times this season. If the Cougars can get that type of pressure, they will force turnovers and win this game.

This was such an easy hit. I knew BYU was going to win after the Cougars returned a punt for a touchdown in the first quarter. Colorado was never in this game. The Buffaloes offense looked horrific. They couldn’t move the ball unless Travis Hunter made an explosive play. BYU came in, played pissed off, and dominated the battle for third in the Big 12. Nice plus money hit.

LOSERS

Las Vegas Bowl: USC 35, Texas A&M 31

My Pick: Texas A&M -3.5

Teams that have been destroyed by the transfer portal struggle in their bowl games and that is what I expect to see from USC. They already had a weak OL; it’s now weaker. The Trojans already had a thin DL; it’s now thinner. I expect the Aggies to run all over the Trojans, and I expect Texas A&M to consistently get after the QB with a weak USC OL. If these teams were at full strength, I’d take the Aggies. Now I can get the Aggies with a depleted Trojans team. Seems like taking candy from a baby.

With 20 minutes left to go in this game, I looked like a genius. A&M was up 24-7 and USC looked outmatched. Then, Ja’Kobi Lane put the Trojans on his back and scored two of USC’s four TDs in the final 17 minutes, not only to cover, but also to win the game outright. It was clear to me what happened, USC played four quarters and A&M only played three quarters. Brutal way to lose a bet.

Alamo Bowl: BYU 36, Colorado 14

My Pick: Over 54.5.

I don’t expect BYU’s defense to completely stop the Buffaloes. No teams have been able to do it this year. On the flip side, I don’t expect Colorado's defense to get many stops against BYU’s offense. The Buffaloes struggle to stop the run and the Cougars love to run the ball to set up their play-action pass game. All good signs, pointing to an over hitting for us. 

Well, BYU’s defense shut down Colorado's offense with ease. I mean they gave up only two rushing yards ALL FREAKING GAME. That’s just embarrassing for the Buffalos. A missed field goal by Colorado and a couple of BYU interceptions in Buffalo territory kept us from hitting the over. Felt like the over was the best bet, just had unlucky plays and turnovers that kept the over from cashing. Brutal game to not cash a double dip that should have hit.

ReliaQuest Bowl: Michigan 19, Alabama 13

My Pick: Alabama -13.5.

Michigan simply doesn't have the firepower to keep up with this Alabama team. Michigan still can’t throw a forward pass at QB. I expect Alabama to take out some of their college football playoff frustrations on this Michigan team to end their season. Michigan has a great interior DL, but they are weak on the edges. Bama will exploit this weakness and cruise to an easy victory. Roll Tide!

This was the easiest loss of my bowl bets. Bama had three first quarter turnovers that led to Michigan jumping out to a 16-0 lead. As soon as that happened, I knew I could turn the game off because it was over. When you are a 13 point favorite, you can’t spot the other team 16 points in the first quarter. Louisville vs. Washington took up my TV space the rest of the afternoon.

Conclusion

I have a bitter taste in my mouth after these bowls because it feels like we should have won our Texas A&M bet and we should have gotten the over in the BYU/Colorado game. We were so close to another 4-1 week, but unfortunately, that’s gambling. I’ll see everyone back in a few days for our College Football Playoff semifinal bets!

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