Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma State vs. Baylor

#5 Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Big 12 this season has been like a season of "24," except without it all happening in a single day. The amount of crazy events that have gone on this season in the conference has been insane, from Oklahoma and Texas deciding to leave the conference, Spencer Rattler's surprising failure, Lincoln Riley's departure to USC, and Texas becoming an absolute dumpster fire again. It has been a mess in this conference, and funny enough, both Oklahoma and Texas won't be playing for the title. They thought they were above this and belonged in the SEC, but they will find out quickly just how tough that will be.

No. 5 Oklahoma State and No. 9 Baylor have earned their spots in this game, and both teams deserve to be applauded for it. With a win in this game, I believe that the Cowboys will also earn a spot in the college football playoff semifinals. They will have won 12 games this season and are in a major conference, and that to me warrants a spot in the CFP. Oklahoma State comes into this game as the much healthier team, especially at quarterback. They are a very balanced team, with QB Spencer Sanders and RB Jaylen Warren leading the offense against a questionable Baylor defense. Who are we kidding, this is the Big-12. Every defense is questionable.

Warren has five games with 100-plus yards rushing and two over 190 yards, but has struggled the previous two weeks to get that same type of production going. Sanders doesn't have eye-popping numbers, with 16 TDs and eight INTs, but he's gotten the job done. Oklahoma State is a -5.5 favorite in this game, with a total sitting at 47. That is a very low total, but we'll discuss why in a minute.

According to our BetQL model, the Cowboys are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games and are 5-0 SU in their last five conference games.

#9 Baylor Bears

The Bears are +5.5 underdogs since starting QB Gerry Bohanon may not play in this game, and that also has sunk the total. If he actually is able to play, I think this line is shorter by a few points. However, I don't think he plays, so it will be backup QB Blake Shapen that will have the responsibility of leading the #9 team in the nation against the Cowboys.

I'm not so confident he will be up to the task. He is a freshman that has very little experience, and this will easily be the biggest moment he will have in his young life. I don't know about you, but I find it very hard to trust a guy in this extremely high-pressure situation who has a grand total of 39 career attempts. That's not ideal for Baylor, and they will be hoping that Bohanon can heal up in time to start this game.

RB Abram Smith has had a fantastic season, with 1,366 yards on 215 attempts. That's a crazy 6.4 average yards per carry. He also has 12 TDs and has just ripped opponents on the ground. Baylor averages a remarkable 227.4 rushing yards per game. He and Bohanon make quite the lethal pair, but it may all be up to him to shoulder the load in this championship game.

According to our BetQL model, the Bears are 8-3 ATS in their last nine games and are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against the Cowboys. They are also 7-13 SU in their last 20 games against the Cowboys.

Prediction

Look, the Bears are a great team, but without Bohanon I don't trust them. Oklahoma State will just key in on Abram and the rushing attack, and force a guy with 39 passing attempts to beat them. Oklahoma State is the better team with more talent, and they also have the better defense. It is just that simple as to why I'm taking the Cowboys -5.5.

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