Alabama vs. Texas A&M Week 5 Preview

Quick-Hitters

• Texas A&M opened the season with an ugly 17-12 win at Vanderbilt last Saturday. The Aggie passing offense had a tough time moving the ball. They failed to regularly convert third-downs and fumbled the ball five times. However, their defense stood up and the rushing attack was effective.

• Alabama overpowered Missouri last week before taking out their starters. Quarterback Mac Jones was efficient and relied on a talented wide receiver corps to get chunk plays. The Crimson Tide could have easily covered the spread, but their backups allowed Missouri to gain ground in the late stages. The final score of Alabama’s 38-19 win was not quite representative of the dominance they displayed during the game.

• Texas A&M has been a great team for under bettors. The under went 9-4 in games involving Texas A&M last season. Including last week's win over Vandy, the under has won in five-straight A&M games. The under was 4-0 in the Aggies road games last season and 14-5 in all Aggie road games since 2015.

• Alabama (-885) is favored by 17.5 points over Texas A&M (+635) with the over/under set at 51.5 total points. CLICK HERE FOR LIVE GAME ODDS!

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Taking Care Of The Ball

Texas A&M enters the 2020 season with high expectations, but their opener left much to be desired. The Aggies opened the year with an uninspiring 17-12 win at Vanderbilt as a 31.5-point favorite. On offense, Texas A&M struggled to get their passing game going. Kellen Mond is considered to be a pro prospect by some experts, but he had a poor day on Saturday. Mond went 17-for-28 with 189 yards and one touchdown. He didn't throw any interceptions, but he fumbled the ball three times (losing two of them) and posted a quarterback rating of just 32.2.

This contributed to their overall total of five fumbles, three of which were lost. A&M also had a rough time on third-down, converting just 4-of-10 third-down attempts. However, the Aggies were able to rely on their running game. Isaiah Spiller ran for 117 yards on eight carries while Ainas Smith ran for 51 yards on 10 carries.

Defensively, Texas A&M had a strong game against a weak offense. The Aggies allowed just 2.8 yards per carry and grabbed two interceptions. They forced Vanderbilt's Ken Seals to just over 5.0 yards per pass attempt. With this extremely small sample size, A&M currently ranks fifth nationally in yards allowed per play and sixth in total defense. Texas A&M's strong defensive performance and weak offensive showing meant that A&M would lose against the spread and that the under would cash against a total of 46.5 points in this matchup with Vandy.

A Reloaded Program

As usual, the Alabama Crimson Tide have had to replace NFL-level talent to remain near the top of college football. Alabama is the classic "reload, not rebuild" type of program, and the 2020 Crimson Tide look to build on that reputation. The 2020 opener saw Alabama grab a 38-19 road win at Missouri. Mac Jones won the battle to replace Tua Tagovailoa and he played well in his first start of the season. Jones went 18-for-24 with 249 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions against Missouri.

Alabama's passing attack was boosted by the dynamic wide receiver duo of Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. Waddle had 134 receiving yards and two touchdowns on eight catches, while Smith had 89 yards on eight catches. The Tide had a tough time finding yards on the ground (averaging 3.1 yards per carry), but Najee Harris didn't have such trouble. Harris averaged 5.8 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns.

On defense, Alabama was able to shut down Missouri's running game. Missouri averaged just 2.0 yards per carry on the night. Unfortunately for some bettors, Alabama took their foot off the gas early in the night. The Crimson Tide held a 35-6 lead going into the fourth quarter, but their defensive backups gave up two touchdowns in garbage time. Bama's reserves on offense only mustered a field goal in the fourth. Alabama's fourth quarter prevented them from covering the -28.5 point spread and allowed the total to fly over the 55.5 oddsmakers' point total.

Betting Trends

The Aggies are coming off of a season where they went 8-5 straight-up. This wasn't the kind of season the Aggie faithful were hoping for when Texas A&M hired Jimbo Fisher, considering Kevin Sumlin got fired for going 8-5 every year.

Texas A&M was middling against the spread (ATS) in 2019, going 7-6. The under went 9-4 in A&M's 13 games last season. With last Saturday's game included, Texas A&M games have gone under in each of their last five outings. As a road team, the Aggies went 1-3 straight-up and 3-1 ATS. The under won in all four of A&M's road games last season. Since 2015, the under is 14-5 in Texas A&M's road games.

Last year, Alabama had a rare season where they failed to reach the College Football Playoffs. They went 11-2 straight-up in the 2019 season. Most schools would love a record like that, but Alabama sees it as a disappointment. Their 7-6 mark represented Alabama's record ATS.

Alabama went 6-1 straight-up at home with their lone loss coming to the eventual national champion LSU Tigers. The Crimson Tide went 3-4 ATS in Tuscaloosa and the over went 4-3 in their seven home games.