Breaking Down ACC Championship Between #18 Wake Forest, #17 Pitt
BetQL looks at the upcoming ACC Championship game between Pitt and Wake Forest
Matthew Horner - Nov 30, 2021, 3:27pm ESTPittsburgh Panthers
Quarterback Kenny Pickett knows what this game means for his future. He's already solidified himself as one of the top QBs in the NFL draft, but with a win in the ACC Championship Game, he may even secure himself as the highest-drafted Pittsburgh QB in school history. Yes, even higher than Dan Marino, who was drafted 27th overall by the Miami Dolphins. Pitt crushed Syracuse last week, 31-14, largely because of Pickett and his four passing touchdowns. Those four TDs helped him break Marino's single-season school TD record. He will finish the regular season fifth in total passing yards with 4,066 and is also tied for second in touchdowns with 40 with Alabama's Bryce Young, and eighth in QBR at 81.1. This kid is an absolute beast, and if the projected total for this game is any indication, he's about to light up the scoreboard yet again.
The total is currently set at 72. SEVENTY-TWO. That is a lot of points. These are two of the highest-scoring offenses in the nation, and they both rank top five in points per game. If Wake Forest wants to have any shot at all to stop this lethal offense, it all starts with Pickett. I have no idea how he is not one of the Heisman favorites considering he has no 5-star recruits surrounding him as the others do. He does have star receiver Jordan Addison, who is in the running for the Biletnikoff Award because he and Pickett have been so dominant on offense.
According to our BetQL model, the Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and are 8-1 SU in their last nine games against the ACC. Those are pretty fantastic trends to consider when you are betting on Pittsburgh, who is a short -3 favorite in the game.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest has had a 10-win season and eviscerated their last opponent. Boston College stood no chance against the Demon Deacons, as they rolled 41-10 in the regular-season finale. QB Sam Hartman led the team with 236 yards passing and three touchdowns while also leading the team in rushing with 51 yards. He's been a top-10 QB in the nation himself, and should be able to take advantage of a poor Pittsburgh pass defense. The biggest problem that Hartman has is turnovers with 10 picks.
However, he's still an electric QB who can get the job done both through the air and on the ground. He has 342 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. He also has the biggest advantage possibly in the game with his receiving corps, where he has two spectacular receivers compared to just Addison at Pitt. A.T. Perry has 1,112 yards and 13 TDs, and Jaquarii Roberson has 1,024 yards with eight TDs. These two can cause any secondary some real issues, and with how poorly the Panthers have played against the pass this season, I wouldn't be shocked to see them absolutely rip that secondary for yards and scores.
This is going to be a close, tough game between two high-scoring teams with Wake Forest as a +3 underdog. According to our BetQL model, the Demon Deacons are 4-2 ATS in their last six games and 6-2 O/U in their last eight games.
Pitt vs. Wake Prediction
This is going to be a shootout in all likelihood, with both teams having poor defenses and high-powered quarterbacks. I love Kenny Pickett and his ability, but I really pause in taking a side here because I don't trust either defense to get the job done against the opposing offense. What does that lead me to? Well, the over 72. That is a huge total that normally I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole because that's scary to hope for that many points.
I just can't pick a side, and these are easily the two worst defenses playing in a championship game this year. Instead, let's pick the over and pray for fireworks with Pickett earning himself a higher draft position and more cash.
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