Western Kentucky vs. Houston Odds, Pick: Bet undervalued Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky can keep pace with Houston on the road
Thursday night’s college basketball card features eight ranked teams in action. No. 12 Houston is set to host Western Kentucky in a game that was scheduled last Sunday. I see betting value in this matchup of a ranked team against a mid-major foe on short notice.
Where: Houston, Texas
When: 7 PM EST
Watch: ESPN 2
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Western Kentucky (+12, 136) at No. 12 Houston
I’m bullish on the Hilltoppers come March, which you can read about in my mid-major report from last week.
After beating Alabama on the road and keeping pace with West Virginia, losing by six, Western Kentucky fell out of the public eye due to a near three-week COVID-19 pause at the end of January.
With seven upperclassmen in their rotation, I don’t see WKU being phased by the physical Houston defense, but they must be better at protecting the ball. The team’s turnover rate has jumped up to over 22% in conference play, the worst mark in Conference-USA.
Houston is top 30 in the country at forcing turnovers, but that number has been trending down since conference play started. Kelvin Sampson’s team is turning their opponents over 10% less in AAC play.
It’s paramount to limit turnovers, but rebounding is the x-factor to this one.
Houston is grabbing about 40% of available offensive rebounds, best in the conference. Western Kentucky has big man Charles Bassey, who is top five in the country in defensive rebounding rate, as well as a supporting cast that is great at limiting opponents second chances, top 30 in opponent’s offensive rebounding rate as a team.
As I alluded to earlier, this is a veteran ‘Topper team that will be prepared for a battle. If the team can protect the ball, I expect them to get to the free throw line often. Houston has the 336th opponent free throw rate and is facing a Western Kentucky team that strokes it from the charity stripe, 11th in the country. If the Cougars are going to send WKU to the line, the road team can keep this to single digits.
After decimating Cincinnati 90-52 over the weekend, Houston is getting a mid-major on short notice so I see the public sentiment around the home favorite.
I’m going the other way. Western Kentucky can limit second chances and generate a ton of free throw opportunities. This spread is underrating the talented and dangerous Hilltoppers.
Pick: Western Kentucky +12, play to +10.5.
