Week 16 TNF Same-Game Parlay Picks: Broncos vs. Chargers

The Broncos (9-5) head to Los Angeles on Thursday night to take on the Chargers (8-6) in a crucial AFC West showdown. This marks the second meeting between these division rivals this season, with the Chargers edging out a 23-16 victory in Denver earlier this year. As things stand, both teams are in position to secure Wild Card spots, but with three weeks left in the regular season, every game carries massive playoff implications.

Denver comes in riding high after a second-half comeback win over the Colts, while the Chargers are looking to bounce back after getting blown out by the Bucs at home. A win for L.A. would give them the tiebreaker over Denver, while a victory for the Broncos would officially clinch them a playoff spot.
I’ve cooked up a same-game parlay for TNF that I’m feeling good about:

Gus Edwards Under 34.5 Rushing Yards & Bo Nix Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown & Under 42 Total Points (+525, BetMGM)

The Chargers offense has been in freefall since starting running back J.K. Dobbins landed on IR after Week 12, and the run game hasn’t been able to pick up the slack. Gus Edwards has yet to top 36 rushing yards in any game since taking over as the lead back and hasn’t logged more than 10 carries. He’s also splitting time with Kimani Vidal, further capping his opportunities. The Broncos’ defense should make life even tougher—they rank No. 5 in rushing yards allowed (98.6 per game) and No. 2 in yards per carry allowed (3.9). Against a stout Denver front, Edwards clearing 34.5 rushing yards feels unlikely.

The Broncos may be winning games, but Bo Nix hasn’t been at his best lately. After a stretch of three turnover-free games, Nix has coughed up the ball five times in his last two outings, including three turnovers in last week’s win over the Colts. On the flip side, the Chargers' defense has been opportunistic, tied for No. 4 in interceptions per game (1.0) on the season and No. 2 over the last three weeks (1.7). Given Nix’s recent struggles, it wouldn’t be surprising to see L.A. snag at least one pick on Thursday.

Neither offense inspires much confidence right now. The Chargers have failed to score more than 17 points in each of their last three games, largely due to injuries and a struggling run game. Even with Ladd McConkey back last week, L.A. ranks 30th in EPA/play over that stretch. Meanwhile, Denver is fresh off a 31-point outing against the Colts, but that score doesn’t reflect their offensive performance. Nix posted a season-low 15.2 QBR with just 130 passing yards in that game. With both defenses outshining their offenses, and with eight of the last nine matchups between these teams staying under 42 points, the under feels like a solid play.

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