Hershkovich: Saturday's College Basketball Betting Preview for February 13

Another Saturday, another 20 ranked college basketball teams in action. There are plenty of buy-low, sell-high spots on tomorrow’s slate, and I’ll have two of them on my card. Let’s break them down.

Remember, you can hear more about these games, along with a breakdown of the rest of the card, on BetQL U -- live on Twitter from 11-noon ET on Saturday. Subscribe to the podcast, too.

Ole Miss (-2.5) @ South Carolina; O/U 137.5

The Rebels are coming three straight wins -- outright and against the spread -- and the market is especially high on them after a blowout win over Missouri on Wednesday.

On the other side, the Gamecocks have lost consecutive games straight-up, but their last one was a tight loss to the SEC’s best Alabama. The Tide aren’t the most turnover-prone team, averaging the fifth highest clip in-conference, but South Carolina turned them over 22 times on Wednesday. Overall, Frank Martin’s team boasts the second-highest opponents’ turnover percentage (22.7%) in SEC play.

Ole Miss has tallied the fifth-highest turnover rate (20.4%) in-conference, so look for South Carolina guards Seventh Woods and Jermaine Couisnard to apply plenty of ball pressure in attempt to generate some transition opportunities. The Gamecocks have notched the 10th-highest Adjusted Tempo in college basketball, and if they can speed up Ole Miss and its 45th-lowest AdjT, they’ll be in position to take control of the game.

Moreover, the Rebels have generated the highest 2-point scoring rate in SEC play (59.2%), but Martin’s unit is allowing the lowest scoring rate in that department (46.1%). With their size advantage, Ole Miss won’t have nearly as much success attacking the paint as it’s had over its past few games.

Pick: South Carolina +2.5

Gonzaga (-16.5) @ San Francisco; O/U 156.5

Yes, the Bulldogs pulled off a 22-point win in their first matchup on Jan. 2, but there’s still some value backing home dog by more than four possessions.

Although the Dons lost outright to Pepperdine in their first game back from their COVID-19 layoff on Wednesday, their legs clearly weren’t there for the second half after blowing a 13-point lead. Look for Todd Golden’s bunch to come out motivated for this one, and its new-age coaching staff gives it an edge as well, especially as a large underdog. 

If there’s one area to expose Gonzaga, it’s against its perimeter defense, giving up the fourth-highest 3-point percentage (35.2%) in-conference play. If San Francisco can hang around on the glass, its guards Jamaree Bouyea (38.3%) and Khalil Shabazz (37.5%) should be able to find their spots around the perimeter.

Pick: San Francisco +16.5