We're getting down to the final few weeks of the regular season, making each game a little more important. Scroll down to check out which teams I'm targeting tonight and where our BetQL model has found some value.
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This is a little bit of a fishy line because West Virginia is going up against a ranked team, yet the Mountaineers are the ones favored. That said, West Virginia is at home and Iowa State is 0-4 in its last four road games. Regardless, I’ve found that it’s the fishy lines that are often right. This is a great opportunity for WVU to get a Quad 1 win and boost its resume as March nears. The Mountaineers have a deep rotation that has allowed them to find success with multiple players being able to attack the basket and finish around the rim. Defensively, both teams play a similar style that focuses on creating havoc and turning the other team over. West Virginia is going to try and force Iowa State to play in the half court, which is an area where the Cyclones struggle. If they’re able to do that successfully, I think the Mountaineers not only win but also cover the spread.
My pick: West Virginia -3.5
Alabama has been talked about a ton this season for its offense, and rightfully so. The Tide have multiple offensive threats and can put up points in a hurry, averaging 83.1 points per game. Because their offense is so dominant, Alabama's defense gets overshadowed, yet I’d argue it's equally as good on that side of the ball. Alabama has the second-best defense in the SEC and is ranked sixth nationally, according to KenPom. It's held three of its last five opponents under 64 points, including holding Vanderbilt to just 44. The Tide are especially strong at home, only allowing 57.0 points during conference play. Matchup-wise, Alabama's Charles Bediako should have the advantage down low tonight against Florida's Colin Castleton. If he's able to shut Castleton down, I'm not sure where the Gators offense is going to come from because they're one of the worst mid-range shooting teams in the country and the Tide are great at defending the perimeter. It's going to be a tough scoring night for Florida, so take its team total under 69.5.
My Pick: Florida team total u69.5
SDSU leads the Mountain West standings, but Utah State is only one game behind in third place. Nevada sits in second, just a half-game back from first, after it beat New Mexico last night. In other words, the race for the regular-season title is going to come down to the very end. The Aggies have already lost to the Aztecs once this season, so it's going to be nearly impossible for them to win the conference if they lose again tonight. That said, I like them to win and cover at home. The last time these two teams played, SDSU shot nearly 50% from the field and 55% from deep. In its three games since, the Aztecs haven't shot anywhere near that. You could certainly argue that they're due for some positive regression, but that would still only be closer to the tune of around 40%. Utah State has also been great at home this year, going 11-1 at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, which is why I'll lay the two points with the Aggies.
My Pick: Utah State -2
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