We have a massive college basketball slate on Saturday, filled with marquee conference matchups! Scroll down to check out which teams I'm targeting tonight and where our BetQL model has found some value.
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Baylor welcomes Texas Tech to Waco after returning from a road loss at Texas. The Bears were in a tough spot in their game against the Longhorns, which they lost by five and failed to cover in. They were coming off a home win against Arkansas on Saturday and, having been a college student myself, I'm sure went out to celebrate after. The team then traveled to Austin on Sunday, after what I presume was a late night for many of them, and didn't look ready to play on Monday.
That's not to take anything away from Texas, but from the coaching to everything on the court, the Bears just looked a bit sleepy. Now, back at home, fresh off a loss, and facing an in-state rival, I think we see Scott Drew's team bounce back. Plus, they're still only two games back from Texas for the Big 12 lead, so its essential that they continue stacking wins, especially against the conference's bottom-tier teams.
My pick: Baylor ATS
UNC is coming off its first home loss of the season and now travels to Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on rival Duke. Both teams enter the game unranked, which was the case last season as well, marking the first time that's happened since 1960. The key for Duke in this game is going to be containing Armando Bacot. The Tar Heels big man is coming off a game against Pitt where he only had 10 shot attempts. Four of UNC's seven losses this season have come when he averages less than 10.5 attempts per game. However, when Bacot has had 15 or more attempts, the Tar Heels are 4-0, which is why I expect them to feed him the ball a ton on Saturday.
UNC has also won the last two games at Cameron Indoor and Bacot, Caleb Love and RJ Davis have all played in this rivalry before, so they know what they're walking into. That said, the Tar Heels are 2-4 on the road while the Blue Devils have yet to lose at home this season. I think this comes down to a one-possession game, so I'll take the points with the road team.
My Pick: UNC ATS
When these two teams met near the start of conference play, Texas gave up 116 to Kansas State in Austin. The final score was 116-103 in favor of the Wildcats, sailing over the closing total of 136. Both teams shot the ball at a ridiculously high percentage from all over the floor, which is why I don't think we’re going to see a total even remotely close to this number on Saturday. However, I still think the over hits because of how fast both offenses like to play and because Kansas State's point guard Markquis Nowell is so good at getting his team out in transition at home. Both the Longhorns and Wildcats have also combined to go 26-16 to the over on the season and 13-7 to the over in Big 12 play.
My Pick: Texas at Kansas State Over
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