BetMGM: March Madness Odds, Best Bets & Predictions For Sweet 16

March Madness: Sweet 16 Best Bets

Over the last week, the field of 68 has been whittled to just 16 remaining teams. Those 16 teams are still alive and competing for the Division I men’s college basketball national championship.

Pretty sweet.

That means handicappers are preparing for a second week of college basketball odds by examining the Sweet 16 betting matchups. 

Here are a couple of the games I feel strongly about right out of the gate.

Purdue (-5.5) vs. Gonzaga

This will sound like a sexy March matchup where the favorite is on upset alert, but I’m not ready to buy Gonzaga just yet. 

The Bulldogs ran through a top-heavy WCC, lost to Saint Mary’s in the conference championship game, then advanced to the Sweet 16 by playing overmatched McNeese and injury-weakened Kansas. In the case of the latter, Gonzaga was even favored to win, at least according to BetMGM’s odds. 

Purdue will be a real step up for the Zags, which head coach Mark Few surely knows. After all, these two teams played back on Nov. 20 on a neutral court in Hawai’i. The Boilermakers won by 10. And as anyone who watched Sunday’s Purdue game can attest, the arrival of the NCAA Tournament has only sharpened the Boilermaker’s anger and focus after last season’s early ouster. 

Overall, Gonzaga is 1-5 outright this year against top 20 KenPom opponents. 

Clemson (+7.5) vs. Arizona

Clemson has been one of the most Jekyll-and-Hyde teams of the season, roasting eventual tournament teams by the bucketload in November and December before struggling through most of the ACC season. 

We know what Clemson is capable of when they’re playing well. The problem is that the Tigers haven’t played well in months. At least, not until the NCAA Tournament started, when they apparently found the switch and turned it all back on. 

I remain a bit skeptical that Clemson will win this game. I’m high on Arizona to win this region and make the Final Four, in part because BetMGM’s Final Four odds actually price the Wildcats as the regional favorite in spite of their No. 2 seed status. 

That said, a 7.5-point spread seems like a lot for a strong ACC team that has found its mojo and ripped off plenty of convincing wins earlier this season. I’ll take Clemson plus the points and hedge against my more long-term Arizona positioning. 

North Carolina vs. Alabama: Over 173.5

I’ve covered Alabama’s three-point variance a few times, including in my updated college basketball national championship odds market analysis. Because of Nate Oats’ focus on the longball, Alabama can beat almost anyone, lose to almost anyone, and play any kind of game between the poles.

We saw a little bit of that in the first week of the NCAA Tournament, at least as far as that dynamic relates to the totals market. In its first-round game against the College of Charleston, Alabama hit 13 three-pointers and scored nearly 110 points by itself. 

In a second game against Grand Canyon, though, both teams combined for 10 three-pointers in the game, resulting in a score that barely cracked 130 combined points. The total result was an under that cleared by 40 points.

When you bet an Alabama total, you’re betting on three-point variance and the opposition’s offensive success. Sometimes, that can feel random. In this case, I think Alabama will use its preparation time this week to scheme up open three-point shots against North Carolina’s defense, just as it did against Charleston. 

On the UNC side, the Tar Heels scored 80 points in both of its first two tournament games and should manage enough offense to hold up their end up over on a high total like this.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.