2021 NCAA Tournament Odds: Florida State, Oklahoma Undervalued

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee revealed its top 16 seeds on Saturday afternoon. It was fairly predictable who would be in the mock bracket and where those teams would be placed, but there is still a ways to go in the season and there is guaranteed to be reshuffling as we get closer to March Madness.

What’s more intriguing to me is scrolling through the odds for who will win the National Championship.

There is a clear hierarchy in college basketball right now. It’s Gonzaga and Baylor, a lot of space, and then everyone else. I am of the belief that buying certain teams futures throughout the season is a great way to be in a good spot to cash some tickets come March.

Of course, in a year dominated by Gonzaga and Baylor, it may be a moot point not to take those two to win it all, but by building a foundation of team’s at positive value you can give yourself outs along the way.

Here are a few numbers that standout to me as both overvalued and undervalued in the betting market.

Get all of BetQL's best bets for the NCAA basketball season! Dating back a full calendar year, our five-star (max-value) bets have won 61% of the time!

Iowa (+1600)

Iowa continues to get too much respect in the market. While the team boasts the No. 1 rated offense according to KenPom, they also post the 108th rated defense.

If you look at the composition of the roster, the team gets by on reputation more than its actual play. The Hawkeyes don’t have a signature win on their resume and have been exposed against athletic and physical teams such as Illinois and Ohio State.

Further, the Hawkeyes were outclassed on a neutral floor against Gonzaga back in December, 99-88.

Speaking of Illinois (+1600), they have the same price on FanDuel Sportsbook. This is a team that strikes me as a much more formidable threat to make the Final Four, if not further. The Illini are paced by arguably the best player in the nation in Ayo Dousnmo and have shown that they have the ability to score with anyone in the country while also great at cleaning the glass and limiting opponents to one shot.

Back to Iowa. Luka Garza may be a dominant big man, but this team is incapable of getting stops. They seem primed to be bounced early if the wrong matchup comes up in their bracket.

The Hawkeyes were on the four line this past Saturday in the bracket reveal, yet are still priced at 16-1 in the market? This is not the number to buy Iowa, and I’m not sure there will ever be a right time to place a future on them with how they are seen in the market.

Play DFS? Be sure to get a 3-day free trial on RotoQL to check out our projections!

Florida State (+2800)

Florida State was not mentioned in the top 16 reveal due to a second COVID-19 pause in the beginning of February, but the Seminoles reminded everyone that they are a one of the most dangerous teams in the country on Monday night when they throttled No. 7 Virginia 81-60.

FSU has a ton of length and is able to switch along the perimeter with the likes of 6’9” freshman Scottie Barnes capable of sticking to point guards and centers.

What is most impressive, though, is the Seminole offense. FSU is sixth in the country in three-point percentage at a shade under 40%. However, the team is right in the middle of the pack in three-point rate.

This unit is not reliant on the long ball, but is devastating when they take it. Leonard Hamilton’s team is explosive on offense and versatile on defense. This price is way too low.

Oklahoma (+4000)

I’ll start by saying Oklahoma may not appear to be a National Title contender since they lost by 15 at Baylor in January, but I do think this price is a solid add on a team that figures to be on the two or three line come the tournament.

If the Sooners are able to secure a top-two seed, expect this price to drop dramatically.

What I like most about the Sooners is that they don’t beat themselves. Lon Kruger’s club is 12th in the nation in turnover rate and shoots a hair under 75% from the free throw line.

OU doesn’t foul a lot, seventh in the country in opponent free throw rate, and go nine deep in the rotation.

This is a team that can land in the right bracket and make some noise in the tournament. The team has dealt with some players out of the lineup during the year but has been able to knock off Alabama at home and go on the road and pull out a double overtime win at West Virginia.

Lead guard Austin Reaves is a baller and he can make some March magic. The Sooners play poised basketball that is paramount come the tournament.