Scottie Barnes Is Viable DPOY Sleeper

Last season, Jaren Jackson Jr. edged out Brook Lopez and Evan Mobley to win the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year award and while all three big men are ready to contend for the honor again, this accolade is one of the most wide-open betting markets every year. This season will be no exception. Marcus Smart (2021-2022), Rudy Gobert (2020-2021) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2019-2020) were the three previous winners, which conveys the variety of positions and player calibers that can bring home the hardware. Heading into the 2023-2024 season, one specific player caught my eye based on his perceived upside and price.

Toronto Raptors wing Scottie Barnes has +15000 odds to win the 2023-2024 Defensive Player of the Year at BetRivers. Despite the fact that it was his teammate O.G. Anunoby that made the 2nd Team All-Defense Team last season, Barnes is the one who’s best positioned to make a splash at that end of the court and take a major step forward in his third NBA season.

Love From Other Defensive Stars

On his “Podcast P” show, Paul George named Barnes as one of the two NBA players who don’t get enough attention for his defensive skills, along with Pelicans wing Herb Jones.

"I think [Barnes and Jones] will be future Defensive Players of the Year,” George said. “For sure they’ll be first-team All-Defense.” George’s guest Jaren Jackson Jr., the reigning DPOY, concurred. “Those are great picks. I think it’s special when you can guard and get shot blocks and steals. Scottie does a great [job],” Jackson stated.

It's only a matter of time until the national media catches on, because Barnes' competition already has.

Breakout Incoming?

After winning Rookie of the Year honors in 2021-2022 and thus fulfilling his immediate goal, Barnes made it clear that he wanted to be an All-Defense caliber player this past season, but ultimately fell short of that goal.

"I feel like that’s what I do best," Barnes said of his goal before last season, per Sports Illustrated. "That’s one thing I always pride myself on, trying to guard. That’s my goal."

Barnes has the rare ability to guard any position on the floor based on his height and length and has the even more rare quickness and lateral balance to lock down the opposing team’s best offensive guards. That should be on full display once again this year on a Raptors team that saw longtime point guard Fred VanVleet and head coach Nick Nurse both leave while Dennis Schroder, Jalen McDaniels and rookie Gradey Dick joined as impact newcomers. Anunoby and All-Star Pascal Siakam will both be back for new head coach Darko Rajakovic.

But, it's clear that Toronto is banking on Barnes' development.

Coaching Change Impact & New Opportunity

Barnes regressed from an efficiency perspective as a scorer in his sophomore year despite putting up exactly 15.3 points per game, a repeat of his rookie campaign. With both Siakam and Schroder very comfortable with the ball in his hands, I fully expect Barnes to take on a lower-usage offensive role and instead take advantage of higher-percentage opportunities on that end of the court.

Rajakovic's offense has an international flare (he's Serbian) and features a team-centric style. Therefore, Barnes shouldn't be tasked with running the entire offense or playmaking like he was last season when the second unit was essentially his to control. That shift should allow him to develop from an elite help defender to an elite on-ball defender against all five positions, particularly the smaller, quicker players that gave him issues at times under Nurse.

Rajakovic is known as an offensive-minded guru, but he guided Jackson Jr. to his D.P.O.Y. season as an assistant in Memphis last season and at his introductory press conference, he was visibly excited about the defensive upside his team can have based on their versatility due to the length they have, ability to switch and coverages off the ball. The potential blitzing into passing lanes and trapping could allow someone like Barnes to rack up steals and deflections, important factors in ultimately winning an award like this.

Not only that, but Toronto needs to get the most out of Barnes, especially this season. Both Siakam and Anunoby are on expiring contracts. They don’t have a 2024 first-round draft pick after they acquired (and then extended) Jakob Poeltl from the Spurs. Without blowing up their roster this offseason, the Raptors’ front office clearly wants to give Rajakovic an opportunity to work with this group. Of course they could be sellers at the trade deadline if it doesn’t work out, but they might not have to be if Barnes takes the next step. 

Keep in mind that Anunoby’s individual Defensive Rating was 111.4 last season, just slightly better than Barnes, who came in at 111.6. Over the last month of the year, Barnes was statistically the better defensive player than the guy who made the All-Defense Second Team.

All in all, I think we will see Barnes take a major step forward in 2023-24 and this is my favorite price in the entire market.

Want to tail and take a shot on Barnes at these odds? Do it now at BetRivers!