NBA Playbook For Monday, October 24

The 2022-2023 NBA regular season is finally here and BetQL is your source for best bets, sharp picks, live public data, player prop values, final score projections and so much more for Monday's best games! Scroll down to take a look at current odds and best bets from our model!

PACERS (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U)

76ERS (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U)

Heading into this season, the 76ers had high expectations once again, but enter Monday night’s game against the Pacers with a winless 0-3 record. After a nine-point loss to the rebuilding Spurs on Saturday, head coach Doc Rivers admitted to reporters, “We have a lot of work to do”. Averaging just 103.3 points per game, Philadelphia ranks dead-last in pace, relies on offensive isolations and simply hasn’t meshed despite the individual production of Joel Embiid (27.0 points, 13.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists), James Harden (26.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 9.3 assists) and Tyrese Maxey (20.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists). Philadelphia has posted an average of 19.7 assists per contest (3rd-lowest in the NBA) and has shot just 31.5% from three-point range (4th-worst) so far. 

Meanwhile, the rebuilding Pacers aren’t a team to take lightly. Tyrese Haliburton (25.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 9.7 assists) has emerged as a potential perennial All-Star caliber guard and rookie Bennedict Mathurin (24.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists) is looking like an absolute beast off the bench. This might be the perfect time to fire up some Rookie of the Year bets for Mathurin as well. After the Spurs were able to beat the Sixers outright over the weekend, don’t count Indiana out, either. Keep in mind that Myles Turner, who missed the first three games of the season due to a freak ankle injury that he suffered when stepping on a ball boy’s foot before the opener, is questionable and could make his season debut in this one.

Depending on what number you can get, I don’t think it’d be the craziest idea to back Indiana against the spread and maybe even their moneyline if Turner plays.

RAPTORS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U)

HEAT (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U)

The Heat held on to earn a gritty 112-109 win over the Raptors in Miami on Saturday and this will be the same exact matchup in the same exact location. Raptors rookie Christian Koloko and Miami’s Caleb Martin will most likely both be suspended for this game due to their on-court fight in that contest, but expect another chippy Eastern Conference battle. 

These teams have gotten off to slow offensive starts. Toronto has averaged only 107.3 points per game on 40.7 points in the paint (3rd-fewest) and have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the league so far. Pascal Siakam (27.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 7.0 assists) is off to an insane start while Fred VanVleet has amassed 24 assists compared to just two turnovers through three games for the Raptors. Toronto has turned the ball over just 11.3 times per contest (best in the NBA), so at least they have that going for them under Nick Nurse’s tutelage. 

Both of these teams have been stingy against the fastbreak; the Heat have allowed just 8.3 points per game in that fashion (2nd-best) while the Raptors have allowed 9.0 (3rd-best). It’s also been tough sledding for Miami’s offense as a whole as well; they’ve put up just 108.0 points per game and have played at the 7th-slowest pace. Jimmy Butler (22.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists) and Tyler Herro (20.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists) will continue to be the go-to options on that end of the floor, but this Miami team has not imposed its will defensively yet and have swatted just 2.3 blocks per contest (worst in the NBA).

As a result of the slow pace these teams play at and the presumed chippiness, I’m personally considering the under.

CELTICS (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U)

BULLS (1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U)

With so many question marks to start the new year, the Celtics are a perfect 3-0 and Jayson Tatum (34.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists) looks like he got even better in the offseason. After dropping 40 points in his last game against the Magic, Tatum became the all-time Celtics scoring leader through the first three games of any season (104 points), which easily surpassed Larry Bird’s mark (96) in his 1984-1985 MVP year. Jaylen Brown (25.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists) has also looked sensational and this Boston team is deep and locked in. They’ve averaged 121.0 points per game on 52% shooting (2nd-best) and own the best Offensive Rating (124.3) in the NBA. However, they’ve struggled defensively under new head coach Joe Mazzulla, as they own the 6th-worst Defensive Rating (116.8) thus far. Despite that, defending Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart has been amazing. In 147 individual defensive possessions, he’s held James Harden, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, PJ Tucker, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, Franz Wagner, Cole Anthony and Paolo Banchero to a combined 14 total points.

Meanwhile, it’s been the same deal as last year for the Bulls. DeMar DeRozan (27.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists), Zach LaVine (23.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists) and Nikola Vucevic (18.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists) can all be relied on, but this team is going to struggle to consistently generate points. So far, they’ve averaged 104.0 points per game on 36.0 points in the paint (worst), 6.7 fastbreak points (worst) and the league’s 2nd-worst Offensive Rating. 

The Bulls have allowed their opponents to shoot 51.4% from the field this season (worst in the NBA) and it’s tough to imagine this Celtics offense not being able to do whatever they want on that end of the floor. Meanwhile, Chicago doesn’t have enough firepower on the other end of the court to create any bit of confidence of why they should keep this game close. I’m looking at the Celtics to win and cover the spread.