NBA Playbook For Thursday, October 20

The 2022-2023 NBA regular season is finally here and BetQL is your source for best bets, sharp picks, live public data, player prop values, final score projections and so much more for Thursday's best games! Scroll down to take a look at current odds and best bets from our model!

76ERS VS. BUCKS

76ERS BREAKDOWN

The 76ers enter this game with an 0-1 record after falling to the Celtics by nine points in their season-opener on Tuesday. In that loss, they allowed Boston to shoot 56.1% from the field and while Philly shot 50% from the floor themselves, their offense was heavily reliant on James Harden, who finished with 35 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. Per Micah Adams from Sporting News, Harden dribbled the ball 525 times in that game, more times than the rest of his team combined (411).

Joel Embiid (26 points, 15 rebounds, five assists) was his usual dominant self, Tyrese Maxey (21 points) and Tobias Harris (18 points) all chipped in, but Philly got only 11 bench points, which was a major issue to keep an eye on. If that lack of reserve production lingers, that could severely impact this team’s potential. There are three Sixers trends to take note of heading into this Eastern Conference battle. Under Doc Rivers, Philadelphia has gone 92-60 ATS coming off a loss against a division rival, 50-34 ATS in the first half after failing to cover the spread in their previous game and 20-10 ATS in the first half when the first half total is 111 or more over the last two years. Those are all significant and active for this matchup.

BUCKS BREAKDOWN

Under Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks have gone 65-45 against the first half spread in the first half of the season, but this may be tough sledding for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and company. Milwaukee will be playing without Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton, Joe Ingles and DeAndre Bembry and Wesley Matthews is questionable. This will be their first game of the season and I’d expect a starting five of Antetokounmpo, Holiday, Grayson Allen, Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis. Some options off the bench include George Hill, Jevon Carter, Serge Ibaka and Jordan Nwora, but at first glance, it’s easy to see most of the offensive production coming from the starters on both teams.

For what it’s worth, though, in 11 head-to-head matchups against Embiid, Antetokounmpo has led the Bucks to seven victories while averaging 33.7 points, 14.0 rebounds and 6.7 compared to Embiid’s 27.9 points, 12.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists. So, targeting both superstars’ player props make a ton of sense, particularly points + rebounds + assists.

MY PREDICTION

Overall, I see the Sixers winning this game outright and covering, as I don’t necessarily trust anyone outside of Antetokounmpo and Holiday on the Bucks. After their opening-night loss to the Celtics, this Philadelphia team will be hungry to win their home-opener against a conference foe. Find out if my opinion is aligned with the BetQL Model by checking out our projection above!

LAKERS VS. CLIPPERS

LAKERS BREAKDOWN

Not only did LeBron James and the Lakers have to watch the Warriors raise a banner and get their championship rings on Tuesday night, but they then delivered a dud and lost by 14 points despite getting 31 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists from LeBron, 27 points and six rebounds from Anthony Davis and 19 points, 11 rebounds and three assists from Russell Westbrook. The Big Three combined to shoot 29-for-59 shooting (49.2%)  while the rest of the team went 11-for-34 (32.4%).

As a team, the Lakers had 23 assists to 21 turnovers and consistently settled for the outside shot, where they went 10-of-40 (25%). While Kendrick Nunn is a talented sixth man, guys like Austin Reaves, Matt Ryan and Juan Toscano-Anderson got the majority of the minutes off the bench for this team, which is going to be a gigantic issue moving forward. Outside of Nunn and the Big Three, the bench combined to go 3-for-13 shooting en route to 11 points. Until they prove otherwise, this is most likely a team to fade (outside of LeBron or AD player props). Know that Dennis Schroder, Thomas Bryant and Troy Brown Jr. will all be out once again due to injuries.

CLIPPERS BREAKDOWN

Could this be the year that the Clippers finally get over the hump and win their first championship? Maybe. On paper, this is a talented and deep squad. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are legitimate stars. John Wall is healthy and ready for a new opportunity. Reggie Jackson, Norman Powell, Marcus Morris Sr. and Ivica Zubac are all talented pieces of the puzzle. Luke Kennard, Nicolas Batum, Terance Mann and Robert Covington make up a very solid second unit. There’s a lot to like about this roster and all of the ways they can mix and match against pretty much whoever they play. To start the year, the Clippers are going to bring Wall off the bench, which could pay off in this matchup due to the aforementioned lack of talent on the Lakers’ second unit. There’s star power on both of these teams, but the Clippers are miles ahead of their LA counterparts when it comes to depth. I expect that to be the difference in this matchup.

MY PREDICTION

I’m very high on this Clippers squad and like them to win and cover due to their depth. I can see Wall dominating the game against a terrible Lakers bench and the Clippers should be an elite defensive squad all year long. That spells trouble for a Lakers offense that won’t produce much outside of their Big Three. Find out if the model agrees by checking out our best bets above!