NBA Playbook For Tuesday, October 18

The 2022-2023 NBA regular season is finally here and BetQL is your source for best bets, sharp picks, live public data, player prop values, final score projections and so much more for every single game! Tuesday night opens with an awesome Eastern Conference matchup between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers followed by a Western Conference showdown between the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers.

Scroll down to take a look at current odds and best bets from our model and get a full breakdown of how these four teams will look heading into the new campaign.

76ERS at CELTICS

76ers Breakdown

The 76ers enter a new year with some lofty expectations. After going 51-31 in the 2021-2022 regular season, they beat the Raptors in six games in their opening round playoff series but then fell to the Heat in six games in the Conference Semifinals. Philadelphia finished 38-43-1 ATS (-10.2% ROI, -$838 per BetMGM) and 39-41-2 to the O/U last year and added some veteran toughness and depth in the offseason.

Tyrese Maxey, James Harden, Tobias Harris, P.J. Tucker and Joel Embiid are projected to start while newcomer De’Anthony Melton will spearhead a second unit that now contains Montrezl Harrell alongside some rotation of Marisse Thybulle, Furkan Korkmaz, Georges Niang, Paul Reed and Shake Milton. Expect Doc Rivers to mix and match his second unit and try out different variations early in the season. Oh, and don’t forget this crazy (and silly) trend: the Sixers have gone 0-10 ATS on Tuesday nights over the last two years.

Celtics Breakdown

It was quite a tumultuous offseason for the Celtics, who lost their coach Ime Udoka due to his inappropriate actions with a female subordinate. After emerging as the best offensive and defensive team in the entire NBA over the second half of last season, it will be fascinating to see how the team responds to Joe Mazzulla’s style of leadership.

Boston went 51-31 last year and swept the Nets, beat the Bucks in seven games and beat the Heat in seven games before losing the NBA Finals to the Warriors in six. Overall, the C’s went 45-36-1 ATS (5.9% ROI, +$488) and 41-40-1 to the O/U last year and look great once again. Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford are expected to start while Malcolm Brogdon, Grant Williams, Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Blake Griffin and Luke Kornet will likely all see rotational minutes off the bench. Smart and Brogdon are both slightly banged up and are questionable to play while Robert Williams III and Danilo Gallinari are both out. Overall, Brogdon's addition should be a major boost for this squad and, on paper, it's not much of a shock to see why they're the favorites to win the East again.

My Best Bets

If I had to pick a side in this game, I’d lean towards the Sixers +2.5 points due in large part to the absence of Robert Williams III, but I’m most likely going to the player prop market for the majority of my action. Joel Embiid under 26.5 points is sticking out as a logical choice. In 16 matchups against Al Horford in his career, Embiid has averaged 22.8 points per contest and the veteran has mostly held him in check. Based on the attention that Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey will all attract, I also like P.J. Tucker over 5.5 points since I can see him knocking down a few open corner threes. Finally, I love Harden to record a double-double (based on his assist upside) at +175 to +200 across the industry. For the Celtics, I’m on Tatum and Brown both over 2.5 made threes, as both offer some value based on current prices. It's always best to shop around, but I found some great prices from our friends at BetMGM.

LAKERS at WARRIORS

Lakers Breakdown

We are treated with two fascinating matchups on this Opening Night slate. Coming off of a disappointing and injury-ridden 33-49 year, the Lakers have re-tooled, gotten more skilled and younger and are seemingly more ready to emerge as a logical playoff threat. Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverley, Lonnie Walker IV, LeBron James and Anthony Davis will likely start while Dennis Schroder, Kendrick Nunn, Austin Reaves, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damian Jones and Thomas Bryant will likely see time on the floor for new head coach Darvin Ham.

Last year, the Lakers went 35-47 ATS (-18.4% ROI, $1,509 ATS), as oddsmakers routinely overvalued them, and also went 47-35 to the O/U. Westbrook, Walker and Schroder are questionable to play in this game and Troy Brown Jr. is listed as out. It will be interesting to see if former foes Westbrook and Beverley can coexist and if LeBron and AD can return to all-world form alongside each other yet again. 

Warriors Breakdown

The defending NBA champion Warriors are back and more talented than they were when they won the chip. After going 53-29 in the regular season, this team banded together to beat the Nuggets in five games, Grizzlies in six, Mavericks in five and Celtics in six to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

In the regular-season, they went 41-38-3 (0.8% ROI, -$68) and 35-45-2 to the O/U. Over the last two years, they’ve gone 33-20 ATS in home games and they’ve also gone 43-13 SU (47.7% ROI) in home games in which the total is greater than or equal to 220.

This team has a great chance to repeat. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney make up the starting five while Jordan Poole, James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, Donte DiVencenzo, Moses Moody and JaMychal Green will likely all see time off the pine. Moody is listed as questionable and Andre Iguodala is listed as out for this contest, but this team is stacked.

My Best Bet

Unlike the previous game, I’m not going to touch any player props in this game since I think this is going to end up as a convincing Warriors win. Therefore, give me Golden State all the way up to -9.5 and I’m comfortable with it. While the Lakers have star power and more depth than they did last year, the defending champs got better now that Wiseman is healthy and have so many ways to exploit their opponents. This is the first full unit bet I placed this season and I’m confident in it.