NBA Win Totals to Target Post All-Star Break

Updated 2023-24 NBA Win Totals

As the NBA season progresses into its final stretch following the All-Star break, sportsbooks have adjusted their live win totals. Amidst these updates, there's one "over" bet and one "under" bet that's caught my attention. In considering these team's remaining strength of schedule, roster changes and motivation, I think there's value in these adjusted odds as teams vie for playoff positions and look to finish off the season strong.

Dallas Mavericks Over 47.5 Wins (+105, BetMGM)

With 27 games left on the schedule and the Mavs sitting at 32-23, they need to win 18 more games to hit the over on their win total. Based on their remaining schedule, I think this is an over worth betting on, especially at plus-money on BetMGM.

Dallas strung together six straight wins heading into the All-Star break and has the 10th-easiest remaining schedule. During that six-game win streak, the Mavs were first in defensive rating, seventh in offensive rating and third in net rating, so they're certainly starting to build momentum.

Of their remaining 27 games, seven of them are against the Pistons, Spurs, Hornets, Raptors and Rockets, all of which are currently outside of the play-in picture. Dallas also has 16 road games, but that isn't much of a concern given it's been successful away from home with a 15-10 SU record. It also has 11 nationally televised games, which are spots that Luka Doncic tends to get up for the most.

The Mavs also added Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington at the trade deadline to help bolster their lineup. Gafford will likely back up Derrick Lively II but is someone who can be relied upon defensively as a rim protector. Washington will take over for Grant Williams in the starting lineup and serve as a bigger 3-and-D player, adding an impact on both sides of the ball.

With Dallas sitting at No. 7 in the West heading into the final stretch, it's going to do everything it can to jump into the top six, leading to enough wins for this over to hit.

Phoenix Suns Under 48.5 Wins (-115, DraftKings)

The Suns are sitting at 33-22 and in fifth place in the Western Conference standings. With 27 games left in the regular season and their win total is listed at 48.5, they would need to win 16 more games or 59% of their remaining contests.

That is going to be a tall task considering Phoenix has the toughest remaining schedule among all teams to close out the year. It'll face the top six teams in the league -- the Celtics, Wolves, Thunder, Cavs, Clippers and Nuggets -- twice apiece. It also has five back-to-backs mixed into this final stretch, including 15 road games.

Unless something goes terribly awry, the Suns are going to make the playoffs. Therefore, for a team that's extremely injury-prone, heading into the postseason fully healthy is going to be the main focus in order to make a deep run. That means we could see Kevin Durant, Devin Booker or Bradley Beal, who has been dealing with injuries all season, sit out at various points down the stretch.

I would make a case for Phoenix to go .500 over these next too months, but asking them to win nearly 60% of their games considering their opponents is too tall of a task. Grab the under!