NBA Playoffs: Betting Playbook for Wednesday, May 4

NBA Betting Playbook for Wednesday

Wednesday's NBA trends are collected and ready to go. Let's take a look at what you should know before betting today's NBA playoff games.

One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model is a perfect 4-0 on spread picks rated at least ⭐⭐ in the past three days, good for a total return of $364 on $100 bets. BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game. Click below to sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!

This will continue to be an uphill battle for the Sixers without Joel Embiid, who will at least miss Game 2 while he recovers from that orbital bone fracture and concussion. Philly showed signs of life in the first half of Game 1 after falling behind by 14, taking a 51-50 lead at halftime, but Miami ballooned their lead in the second half to 21 before winning, 106-92.

Miami has had plenty of success against teams that fail to ramp up the defensive pressure, going 33-14 ATS when playing a team that forces 13 or fewer turnovers a game; the Heat also had just 11 turnovers in Game 1.

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James Harden had just 16 points on 5-for-13 shooting last game after averaging only 19.0 points per game in the first round. With Embiid out, if Harden can't find that "take over the game" form quickly, this series could get out of hand fast.

There's not much to give you a ton of hope Sixers-wise, so I'm leaning towards another Heat cover in Game 2.

Luka Doncic's 45 points weren't enough for the Mavs in Game 1, and a lot had to do with the fact that DeAndre Ayton dominated Dallas inside, going 12-for-20 from the floor on his way to 25 points.

Overall, Phoenix shot 50.5 percent from the floor, and outrebounded Dallas 51-36, so you can see why Luka's game still didn't do the trick.

Now, Dallas has had plenty of success against good shooting teams throughout the year, going 26-17 SU against teams that shoot at least 46 percent overall, so their slower pace and tight defense will have to be just about perfect in Game 2 to get back on track.

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It also doesn't help when the Suns go 18-for-18 from the free-throw line like they did to open the series. That also helped them keep a lead the entire game, with it getting up to 21 points at one point.

It'll take a whole lot for the Mavs to win this game outright, but given the fact that they still almost covered in Game 1, taking Dallas and the points in Game 2 isn't out of the question. If the spread starts to get up past +6, Dallas might just cover, but for now I'm on the Suns making it 2-0 ATS and for the series as well.

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BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including NBA player props, with star ratings for every game. Click below to sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!