We have a small five-game NBA slate as we near the All-Star break this weekend. Scroll down to see which bets I have my eye on and where our BetQL model sees value!
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The Washington Wizards (26-30 SU, 27-27-1 ATS, 29-26 O/U) continue their West Coast road trip on Tuesday when they take on the Portland Trail Blazers (28-29 SU, 29-26-2 ATS, 28-27 O/U).
Both of these teams are on a back-to-back with the Wizards losing at Golden State last night and the Blazers beating the Lakers at home. They are also both very good when playing on no rest with Washington 7-3 ATS and Portland 6-3 ATS in this spots. However, the Wizards are a much better team when playing on equal rest as their opponent. They’re covering the spread 52.2% of the time, while the Blazers only cover 43.3% of the time in those situations. With Jusuf Nurkic also sidelined through the All-Star break, the Blazers frontcourt is pretty thin and Kristaps Porzingis should be able to take advantage and help the Wizards pull off the upset on the road.
My Pick: Wizards +3
The Sacramento Kings (32-24 SU, 31-25 ATS, 27-29 O/U) are in the desert tonight to take on the new-look Phoenix Suns (31-27 SU, 30-27-1 ATS, 24-33 O/U).
The Suns defense has been phenomenal lately, ranking second in the league over the last five games. They’ve held opponents to under 105 points in three of their last five games and under 35% from deep in four of those games. They’re also back at home after a lengthy road trip and have the rest advantage over Sacramento. The Kings are playing their third game in four days and are coming off an overtime win against the Mavericks. This is also their last game before the All-Star break, while the Suns still have to play the Clippers on Thursday. Phoenix may be a little bit more focused while Sacramento has already begun looking towards the break. Not to mention, Kevin Durant will be sitting on Phoenix’s bench tonight, so I would expect the Suns to try and show out and give him a preview of what he’s walking into.
My Pick: Suns -2.5
The Boston Celtics (41-16 SU, 29-26-2 ATS, 26-28 O/U) put their four-game win streak on the line tonight when they travel to take on the Milwaukee Bucks (39-14 SU, 30-22-4 ATS, 27-29 O/U).
The Bucks are also looking to extend a four-game win streak tonight and, according to our BetQL model, it's likely to happen. Bucks -9 is our model's favorite play of the day and I agree with it. Boston has a lengthy injury report with Jason Tatum, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams and Grant Williams all likely to be out tonight. The only way the Bucks lose is if they overlook this game, however, I don't see that happening because the last time these two teams met, Milwaukee was embarrassed by the Celtics on Christmas Day. Giannis takes those types of games personally, which is why I'm more than happy to lay the big number with the home team.
My pick: Bucks -9
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