NBA Expert Picks for Tuesday, October 29: Back Nuggets vs. Nets and Pelicans vs. Warriors

The NBA season is heating up, and Tuesday night’s slate brings two intriguing matchups for bettors: the Denver Nuggets at the Brooklyn Nets and the New Orleans Pelicans at the Golden State Warriors. With Denver looking to jumpstart their offense and the Warriors missing Steph Curry, there’s plenty of opportunity to find value. We’ll break down these games and key betting angles, including the Nuggets’ first-half spread and a moneyline pick for the Pelicans as they head to a Curry-less Golden State. Dive into our expert analysis to make the most of tonight's NBA action.

Nuggets -2.5 1H at Nets (-110, BetMGM)

What the heck is going on with the Nuggets so far this season? I detailed a bit of their early struggles in my Player Prop Picks article today, but most notably, they’ve been stale offensively based on their inability to create points from people other than Nikola Jokic, particularly from three-point range. I expect that to be the main point of emphasis for Michael Malone and his staff tonight when they head to Brooklyn for a get-right game. That’s one of the reasons I love Michael Porter Jr. tonight, as detailed in that article.

Jamal Murray is probable with an ankle sprain while Ben Simmons (surprise… not), Bojan Bogdanovic, Day’Ron Sharpe and Trendon Watford will be out for Brooklyn. I’m not at all going to take Brooklyn’s win over the Bucks last time out as anything but what it was (a fluke). This team is arguably the worst group in the entire NBA and got blown out by the Magic (an actual good team) and the Hawks (a bad team) in their two games before that.

Last season, the Nuggets owned the 4th-best first half Offensive Rating. This season, they own the 3rd-worst. Last season, the Nets owned the 20th-ranked first half Defensive Rating. This season, they own the 5th-best. What does that mean? With rosters looking very similar to last year’s teams, some serious regression is incoming from both sides. If this was the season-opener, I would have expected the full-game spread to look something like Nuggets -9.5, rather than -5 or -5.5 like it is after the small sample. The BetQL Model projects Denver to be winning by four at the intermission and I think that’s conservative.

Pelicans ML at Warriors (-120, FanDuel)

Steph Curry and De’Anthony Melton have been ruled out for the Warriors while Andrew Wiggins (back) is questionable. Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy will be out for the Pelicans, but I think New Orleans is well suited to come in and win this game on the road given their star power (Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum) and depth. Jordan Hawkins has put up 18.0 points per game on 52.9% three-point shooting and will be an important depth piece tonight.

Losing Curry (27.8% usage rate) in particular is going to sting the Warriors. They’ve gone 84-147 without him throughout his career, including 3-5 without him last season and now no longer have Klay Thompson to rely on as a scorer in his absence. Buddy Hield got off to a hot start, but do you trust him? What about Jonathan Kuminga? Wiggins if he plays? I don’t trust anybody on this Warriors roster or Steve Kerr in any way, so I’m rolling with New Orleans for sure. Give me their moneyline.

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