NBA Best Bets For Thursday, Feb. 23

Today's NBA Best Bets

The NBA returns from the All-Star break Thursday, which means another day of tough decisions for bettors. To help you make the best bets today, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite NBA bets below using key trends, data and picks from the BetQL NBA model.

One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA Model finished the first half strong, going 11-2 (85%) on all moneyline picks in the final two days before the break for a quick $395 return on $100 bets! Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of today's NBA best bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL, NHL, and NCAA basketball games! Start your free trial today!

Kate Constable: Kings -5 vs. Blazers

The last time these two teams met was the season-opener when the Blazers won, 115-108, in Sacramento. A lot has changed since then, which is why I’m going to take the Kings to cover -5.5 at home. Sacramento was playing really well before the break and should be able to pick up with it left off. Over the last five games, the Kings ranked in the top 10 in points off turnovers, fast-break points and points in the paint, all areas in which the Blazers rank outside of the top 10 in defending. It’s also unclear whether Jusuf Nurkic will be back after being sidelined for much of February. If he’s unable to play, Domantas Sabonis should have a big advantage in the frontcourt.

Dan Karpuc: Kings -5 vs. Blazers

Looks like Kate and I are in agreement! I see the Kings blowing out the Blazers in this matchup. While Damian Lillard might drop 40 points, both Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic will both be out for Portland, which will be a huge void for them to fill on both ends of the floor. The Blazers have gone just 5-14 ATS against teams that have made 36% or more of their three-point attempts this season. (The Kings have hit 36.5% of their long-range shots this year, so that trend is active tonight.) Portland has also gone just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. The Kings will be at full strength and have also gone an impressive 19-10 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season. “Light the beam” and give me the Kings to win and cover!

Matt Horner: Kings G De’Aaron Fox o26.5 pts

Fox is a train that keeps on rolling, and the books keep setting his number too low for what he has been doing lately for the Kings. Fox has easily surpassed this total in his last four games prior to the All-Star break, with not a single score under 31 points. He’s been lighting up the scoreboard, so let’s hope he can continue that hot streak after the break.

Lucy Burdge: Pacers +8 vs. Celtics

The Celtics will likely come out of the gate hot in the second half of the season and they could get the win here, but I see the Pacers keeping this close and covering this spread. They covered the spread against Boston in a 117-112 win in December, and the Celtics have failed to cover the spread in three of their last five road games. The Pacers are also 19-13 ATS at home, so I like the Pacers to cover here.

Brad Pinkerton: Nuggets-Cavs +400 One-Game Parlay

BetMGM NBA OGP Insurance Play of the Day

If you're not playing BetMGM's NBA OGP Insurance promo yet, you're leaving money on the table. Opt in to the promo and place a four-leg (minimum) NBA one-game parlay with at least +400 odds; if your OGP loses by one leg, you'll get your stake back in a free bet up to $25 -- and you can take advantage of this promo once every day there's an NBA game!

The new +400 odds requirement makes this much harder, so bear with me while I find the right strategy to not only win, but also maximize our chances of getting insurance along the way. Also, DO NOT play these OGPs without the promo, as the insurance is the only reason these bets are valuable over time.

Here is my play for today, using the strategy of "middling" the alt total and alt spreads for each team to increase our chances of getting the insurance if the OGP doesn't hit. You can apply this strategy to any NBA game, any night:

Nuggets-Cavs o213.5
Nuggets-Cavs u229.5
Nuggets-Cavs +7.5
Nuggets +8.5
OGP odds: +400

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MORE NBA: SEE THURSDAY’S BETTING GUIDE

Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of today's best NBA bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL, NHL and NCAA basketball games! Start your free trial today!