World Cup Model Projections: Who Has The Most Value?

The BetQL Model gives its best value play

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The 2022 World Cup is right around the corner, and for those of us that love futbol, it's basically like Christmas in the summertime. While the casual soccer fan will be ecstatic to hear about it coming back to North America within the next five years, the hardcore fan will be paying attention to the play in Qatar this summer. The BetQL model will be as well, and as we do for every sport, we'll be giving you the best value plays according to our model. So let's take a look at who we project to be the World Cup group winners, and see if we can find some value there to possibly cash in on.

Group A features Senegal, Netherlands, Ecuador and the home team Qatar. Funny enough, this is the only group where we can't find any real value. We have the Netherlands favored to win the group at 68.8%, but at -220 odds, we see very little value in picking them.

Group B features England, Iran, United States and Wales. We see England as the clear favorite here, with a win percentage of 78.9%. At -320, it is a steep price to pay, but we see some slight value in that number, which indicates that the books have them at 76.2%.

Group C features Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Poland. We have Argentina as the favorite at 65.6%, but at -220, no value. However, Poland we have with a 27.5% chance, and you can find them at +400, which gives 7.5% of value..

Group D features France, Australia, Denmark and Tunisia. THIS is the group where we have the team with the most value. France is currently -250 at some sportsbooks, and while that price is huge, we have them with a 94.4% chance to win the group. This number indicates a 71.4% chance, which is a massive 23% difference. This is easily the best value of any team in the group stage for us.

Group E features Spain, Costa Rica, Germany and Japan. Spain is our clear favorite at 61%, and at -115 odds, we think that's great value with a 7.5% difference.

Group F features Belgium, Canada, Morocco and Croatia. We give Belgium a 60.2% chance to win the group, and they have -215 odds. That's a -8.1% value, so there's none there. With Croatia, we have them at 28.8% at +275 odds, which is a 2.7% value.

Group G features Brazil, Serbia, Switzerland and Cameroon. Second only to France in our rankings, Brazil has an overwhelming 82.5% chance to win this group. At -300 odds, that implies a 75% chance, so there is 7.5% of value here with them.

Group H features Portugal, Ghana, Uruguay and Korea Republic. We give Portugal a 65.8% chance to win this group, and at -145 odds, that implies a 59.2% chance. So there is some value here of 6.6% that you could jump on.