MLB Postseason Best Bets For Tuesday, October 11

The Divisional Round is here and BetQL is your one-stop source for betting advice and analytics! Below, you’ll see our model’s best bets for all four games, featuring up-to-the-minute lines and corresponding value ratings.

PHILLIES @ BRAVES: NLDS GAME 1

The Phillies got by the Cardinals with back-to-back Wild Card victories to advance to this spot, where they’ll take on division rival and defending World Series champion Braves. Atlanta erased a double-digit game lead to overtake the Mets in the NL East standings and is surging at the right time yet again. 

Some important trends to note for this game: the Braves have gone 55-26 (67.9%) SU at home this season, tied for the 2nd-best rate in the Majors, the Phillies have gone 83-76-5 to the O/U (4th-highest over rate in MLB) and the BetQL Model has gone 54-40 (57.45%, +$851 on $100 bets) on O/U wagers in Max Fried’s starts. Take a look at our best bets and star ratings above.

MARINERS @ ASTROS: ALDS GAME 1

The Mariners are starting to feel like “that” team, aren’t they? They erased a 21-year postseason drought and defeated the Blue Jays in back-to-back Wild Card games, overcoming an 8-1 deficit in Game 2. They’ve had some magic on their side, but now have to go up against the Astros, who finished with a 106-56 record, the best record in the American League.

Note that the Astros have gone 60-93-9 to the O/U (60.8% under rate, highest in Majors), including 32-45-4 to the O/U (58.4% under rate, 2nd-highest in Majors) at home. Houston has gone 55-26 SU (67.9%) at home, the 2nd-best record in the Majors, and BetQL has gone 35-8 (81.4%) on first five inning moneyline bets in Justin Verlander’s starts (+$2,145 on $100 bets). Check out our model’s value picks above!

GUARDIANS @ YANKEES: ALDS GAME 1

After beating the Rays 2-1 and then 1-0, the Guardians look to continue their stellar pitching against a dangerous and powerful Yankees lineup that features American League home run king Aaron Judge. The Yankees have been dominant versus the moneyline at home this year, 57-24 (70.4%), tied for the best record in the Majors. However, they’ve gone just 37-44 (45.7%) against the run line. 

Meanwhile, Cleveland has gone 46-35 (56.8%) SU (T4th) on the road and 48-33 (59.3%) versus the run line (T3rd). Cal Quantrill will get the start for the Guardians, which is important to know since BetQL has gone 40-30 (57.14%, +$1,124 on $100 wagers) on run line bets in his starts. See our model’s best bets above!

PADRES @ DODGERS: NLDS GAME 1

The Padres eliminated the Mets in the Wild Card Round to move on to this series against their NL West rivals. Los Angeles finished the regular season with an MLB-best 111-51 SU record and insane +334 run differential. As you might imagine, that run differential allowed them to go 95-67 (59.9%) versus the run line, including 49-32 (60.5%) at home, where they also went 57-24 (70.4%) SU (tied with the Yankees for the best in baseball). 

The Dodgers have gone 67-83-12 to the O/U and their 55.3% under rate was the 4th-highest in the Majors this season. Check out all of our best bets for this matchup above.