Negative Regression Coming For Ronel Blanco
The proof is in the numbers - examine them below
Dan Karpuc - Jul 5, 2024, 11:08pm EDT
Ronel Blanco has been a standout performer this season, but a closer look at the numbers suggests that his stellar performance may not be sustainable. While his 2.53 ERA ranks 5th among qualified starters and his no-hitter in his first start grabbed headlines, the underlying metrics tell a different story.
The BABIP Outlier
One of the most glaring indicators of potential regression is Blanco's exceptionally low BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). Currently, his BABIP stands at .188, the lowest mark in MLB. To put this into perspective, the next qualified starter, Luis Gil, has a BABIP of .216, and these are the only two pitchers with a BABIP under .232. Such a low BABIP is typically unsustainable, indicating that Blanco has been the beneficiary of good luck rather than purely dominant pitching.
ERA vs. FIP Discrepancy
Blanco’s ERA of 2.53 contrasts sharply with his 4.33 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which ranks 57th among qualified starters, or 15th-worst. This discrepancy suggests that his ERA is not fully reflective of his true performance level, and we might expect it to rise closer to his FIP as the season progresses.
Betting Insights
Despite his impressive stats, Blanco is listed at +10000 to win AL MVP at BetMGM. There are 15 pitchers with shorter odds, underscoring how fortunate Blanco has been so far. Savvy bettors might see this as a signal to fade his futures and consider backing opposing offenses when Blanco takes the mound.
Additional Red Flags
Several other metrics support the case for Blanco's impending regression:
85.2% Left on Base Percentage: Blanco’s high LOB% ranks 3rd among qualified starters, another unsustainable figure likely to regress.
Quality Starts: Only 9 of his 16 starts have been quality starts.
Walk Rate: His walk rate of 10.2% is the 4th highest among qualified starters.
SIERA and FIP-: Blanco’s SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) is 4.24, the 16th-worst among qualified starters. His FIP-, which adjusts for ballparks, is also among the 16 worst.
Career Context
Blanco, 30, has had a significant increase in workload this season, pitching 96.0 innings in 16 starts compared to 58.1 innings in 24 games (7 starts) over his prior MLB career with the Astros. His current season record stands at 8-3 with a 1.01 WHIP, but this could change as regression sets in.
Conclusion
Ronel Blanco's early-season success is impressive but likely unsustainable. With numerous metrics pointing towards negative regression, it's prudent to be cautious with future bets on his performance. Backing opposing offenses and teams when Blanco pitches could be a profitable strategy moving forward.
