National League Cy Young Odds: How to Bet the Wide Open Award Race
Zack Wheeler is the favorite, but who has the most betting value?
Reed Wallach - Aug 16, 2021, 12:17pm EDT
About two weeks ago, the National League Cy Young race opened up after Jacob DeGrom had his stint on the injured list extended. No pitcher was shorter than +330 and six were +800 or below.
Now, two have seemingly pulled ahead of the pack in Zack Wheeler and Walker Buehler. Here are the updated odds and metrics for the candidates with DeGrom still on the shelf and sitting at +2500 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Wheeler has moved to the considerable favorite with a formidable résumé as the engine of the Philadelphia Phillies rotation that is in a tight National League East race.
However, Buehler’s candidacy is as strong and there is a betting edge backing the Dodgers ace at +300. While he doesn’t have the strikeouts to keep up with Wheeler, who leads all pitchers, Buehler has him edged in ERA and WHIP. While his FIP shows that he has benefited form strong defense, I see Buehler and Wheeler neck and neck for the award.
Wins and losses have become a bit of antiquated stat, but it’s definitely eye candy. On one of the best teams in baseball in the Dodgers, Buehler has the capability to finish the season with just two losses. Throw in a few more wins and something like a 14-2 record, that could be something to sway voters in what is shaping up to be a photo finish.
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Further down is a pair of Brewers pitchers which becomes a subjective assessment as to who you prefer. Corbin Burnes is the third choice at +330, but is far behind the likes of Wheeler and Buheler -- the two leaders in innings pitched -- in volume. He is striking out batters at an astronomical clip, but will his lack of innings pitched hold him back?
I’d rather back Brandon Woodruff at +600 than his teammate. Woodruff is in the top 10 in IP and has a better ERA than Burnes. He is towards the top in punch outs and also has Burnes edged in Baseball Reference’s WAR metric.
Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer have fallen behind and the numbers support it. Gausman has been excellent for the San Francisco Giants, top 11 in all notable metrics, but doesn’t jump off the page in any particular stat. Considering he will be going up against standout candidates, Gausman is not worth a flier.
Scherzer is going to likely fall to a victim of circumstances. He had a slow start to the season and then was dealt to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, losing some shine next to his new teammate Buehler’s incredible season.
Scherzer is going to have to amp up his volume by entering the top 10 in innings pitched while maintaining his efficiency in order to warrant any consideration at this point.
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