National League Cy Young Odds: Jacob DeGrom's Injury Opens Betting Field
Who is the best bet on the heels of DeGrom's injury?
The National League Cy Young race is now wide open.
With news breaking Friday night that Jacob DeGrom is going to be shut down for two weeks after suffering from forearm tightness, the odds have shifted away from the Mets ace (+1000), and now place six pitchers within 10-1.
Here are all the relevant stats for the Cy Young race, including their odds:
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The odds are rightfully leaving the door open for any pitcher to make a run over the final two months of the season.
Each pitcher has a unique case but a few standout amongst the rest.
Dodgers pitcher Walker Buehler has the slight edge in the Futures market, and with good reason. He is second in innings pitched and ERA, but what about his underlying metrics? He sits sixth in WAR amongst NL pitchers, and is outside the top 10 in strikeouts. Further, his FIP is nearly one run greater than his ERA, could he have a weak finish to the year?
How will the Dodgers’ acquisition of Max Scherzer factor into Buehler’s case? The former Nationals ace is +800, and if he can round into form in LA he can make a push towards the end of the year. While he hasn't pitched as many innings, he has backed it up with the second highest strikeouts per nine innings clip and a top 10 NL ERA.
Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler has a strong bid for the award, backed up by his +380 odds. He has pitched the most innings, has the most strikeouts and also the highest WAR. Although, he has allowed more runs and runners on base, will that hold him back as the season carries on?
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Another pair of teammates appear close to one another that could cancel each other out. Corbin Burnes doesn’t have the volume to warrant being +400 at this point, but his stats are impressive, posting the second most strikeouts in the league despite pitching the 53rd most innings.
However, I lean with Brandon Woodruff. He is top five in all relevant stats towards the Cy Young race with a FIP that justifies his 2.38 ERA.
Kevin Gausman has been a great story this season, but he seems to be fading since the All-Star break, and has a FIP that shows further regression may be coming. In his last four starts he has an ERA of 6.11.
What about DeGrom? Is he done?
He sits at +1000, but is now not qualified for some of the stats that he would be No. 1 in the league such as ERA and WHIP.
If he is going to miss the next month, like some are reporting, he’ll likely come up short on winning his third Cy Young. He must qualify as the league leader to take home the award.
I would continue to wait on DeGrom as he is going to see his odds only get wider with another more time on the shelf.
Keep an eye on Freddy Peralta, the third Brewers starter that is in the mix. He is +2200 for the award, but he has the metrics to put up a case if he can begin going longer into games.
He has the best NL ERA of qualified pitchers at 2.17 and also the best WHIP at .870. His FIP highlights some regression on the way with it nearly a run higher at 3.12, but he is seventh in WAR and strikeouts in the NL. If there's a long shot to play, it's Peralta.