MLB World Series Game 3 Best Bets & Prop Picks: Yankees Look To Avoid 0-3 Hole vs. Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers have taken a 2-0 series lead against the New York Yankees, but the series is far from over. The starting pitcher advantage now swings massively in favor of the Yankees starting tonight, with Walker Buehler taking the hill for L.A. and Clarke Schmidt going for New York in the Bronx.

Buehler hasn’t pitched since Game 3 of the NLCS, which was 12 days ago. He was phenomenal in that game against the New York Mets at Citi Field, showing the best stuff he has shown all season by a huge margin, and generating 18 whiffs. While it is possible that he found his groove at just the right time, I am not going to let one good start wipe away a full season of struggle for the right-hander. Let’s not forget his NLDS start against the Padres, where he allowed six runs without generating a single strikeout in five innings. Overall in 2024, his velocity, command, and stuff have all decreased relative to previous seasons. Even in his last start where he was great, his velocity was down to just 93.8 mph, a season low. I don’t want to claim that he cheated, but I find it very odd he pitched so well despite this drop.

Schmidt also hasn’t pitched since Game 3 of the ALDS, which was 11 days ago. He was decent in that start against Cleveland, going 4 ⅔ innings while allowing two earned runs with two walks and two strikeouts. He was better against Kansas City in the ALDS, going 4 ⅔ innings while allowing two earned runs with one walk and four strikeouts. For the season, Schmidt was a pretty average pitcher with a 3.75 xERA, which is what I have him projected as. That still represents a huge upgrade in comparison to Buehler, and the bullpens in this game are why I give the Yankees a substantial advantage here.

I expect that New York will keep Schmidt on a very short leash, considering their bullpen is rested and they have Luis Gil on deck to start Game 4. Los Angeles doesn’t have that same advantage. They are going to have to have a bullpen game in Game 4 since they have no starters healthy or rested, which means they are going to have to preserve as many of their arms as possible in this game. That means, regardless of if Buehler does well or is terrible, they are going to have to push him innings in this game. That flexibility gives the Yankees a large edge. I’d bet overs on Buehler's props because of this, such as 2.5 earned runs, and do the opposite for Schmidt.

Offensively, these were the best two offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. The Yankees finished with a 120 wRC+, while the Dodgers sat at 117. However, Game 1’s 9-run total pushed at the books, and Game 2 went under the total of 9 runs. Of course, the health of Shohei Ohtani is critical for L.A. I am assuming he will play and is good to go, but it’s hard to imagine him being 100% after he partially dislocated his shoulder. It’s very possible he won’t be stealing bases any more in this series because of that, which also hurts the overall baserunning effectiveness of the Dodgers.

I said in previous articles that this is where the Yankees should start having a large edge, after Games 1 and 2. They are at home, with a better starter on the mound, and have much more flexibility with their bullpen as well. New York should be a decent favorite in this game, and I’d bet them at -141 right now to win the game. I’d also take a look at the first five innings moneyline with the large advantage the Yankees have at starter. As far as temperatures go, it should be around 52 degrees at first pitch, much different from the environment in Los Angeles. I don’t see a huge advantage there with a total of 8.5, with maybe a slight lean to the over.

Best Bets: Yankees ML, Buehler Over 2.5 Earned Runs, Schmidt Under 4.5 Strikeouts

Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM! All you need to do is CLICK HERE, sign up for a new account, make your first deposit and bet! Don’t miss out!