2024 MLB Sleepers: Best Value Picks To Make/Miss Playoffs
BetQL has simulated the entire MLB season 10,000 times to find the best value picks to make/miss the playoffs!
Matthew Horner - Mar 6, 2024, 3:01pm EST
2024 MLB Sleepers: Best Value Picks To Make The Playoffs
The BetQL model has done its first set of simulations for the entire 2024 MLB season, and we can use these results to see what might be a valuable bet in terms of which teams are most likely to make or miss the playoffs.
Our model simulated the season 10,000 times, and the average percentage chance to make the playoffs for each team is calculated to find the biggest advantage over what the sportsbooks are currently listing.
Let's take a look at what the model sees as the biggest advantages betting on teams to make the 2024 MLB playoffs:
2024 MLB Sleepers: Best Value Picks To Make The Playoffs
The BetQL model has done its first set of simulations for the entire 2024 MLB season, and we can use these results to see what might be a valuable bet in terms of which teams are most likely to make or miss the playoffs.
Our model simulated the season 10,000 times, and the average percentage chance to make the playoffs for each team is calculated to find the biggest advantage over what the sportsbooks are currently listing.
Let's take a look at what the model sees as the biggest advantages betting on teams to make the 2024 MLB playoffs:
National League
Phillies to MAKE the Playoffs | DraftKings: -220 (69%) | BetQL Sim: 100% |
Cardinals to MAKE the Playoffs | DraftKings: -105 (51%) | BetQL Sim: -1887 (95%) |
Diamondbacks to MISS the Playoffs | DraftKings: -130 (57%) | BetQL Sim: -455 (82%) |
Cubs to MISS the Playoffs | DraftKings: +100 (50%) | BetQL Sim: -488 (83%) |
The BetQL Model really likes the Cardinals, giving them a massive 95% chance to make the playoffs despite such a disappointing season in 2023. It clearly expects a huge bounce-back year from the historic franchise, and is fading their division rival Cubs as well.
However, the model is fading the D-Backs after their improbable World Series run last season, which I think is a pretty popular choice. It also thinks that Philadelphia is a LOCK to make the playoffs, as they made it in 100% of the simulations.
American League
Mariners to MAKE the Playoffs | DraftKings: -145 (59%) | BetQL Sim: -400 (80%) |
Tigers to MAKE the Playoffs | DraftKings: +190 (34%) | BetQL Sim: -223 (69%) |
Astros to MISS the Playoffs | DraftKings: +340 (23%) | BetQL Sim: -163 (62%) |
Twins to MISS the Playoffs | DraftKings: +145 (41%) | BetQL Sim: -212 (68%) |
I was shocked to see the model project the Astros to miss the playoffs entirely with how insanely successful they have been over the past decade or so. Eventually, their dominance will end, and maybe this is the year it does. The model thinks this is worth a sprinkle at +340.
It also likes their division-rival Mariners to make the playoffs, so maybe a shake-up in the AL West is in order after Texas won the World Series last season.
The biggest shock here might be the Twins missing the playoffs and the Tigers making it in, but crazier things have happened. There is lots of value to be found here in the AL if you want to follow the model's projections.
With the MLB season right around the corner, take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see what the model is projecting for NBA, college hoops, NHL and more! Start your free trial today!