MLB Playoffs: Yankees vs. Guardians ALDS Game 5 Odds, Prediction & Player Prop Bets

Yankees vs. Guardians ALDS Game 5 Odds & Prediction

The Cleveland Guardians (+145) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-175) on Tuesday with first pitch scheduled for 4:07 p.m. ET. The Yankees are betting favorites with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125) and the Over/Under at 7 total runs. So far this season, the Guardians are 96-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 74-92 ATS.

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on all MLB games with BetMGM!

Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 37 away games (+14.60 Units / 37% ROI)
• Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Singles Over in 40 of his last 62 games (+13.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Austin Hedges has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.90 Units / 45% ROI)
• Austin Hedges has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.85 Units / 44% ROI)
• Austin Hedges has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.55 Units / 26% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)
• Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 games at home (+9.75 Units / 81% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 149 games (+27.10 swUnits / 14% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 40 away games (+16.15 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 away games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 60 away games (+12.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 62 games (+8.45 Units / 12% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 77 games at home (+15.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+7.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

• Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 88-80 against the Run Line (+5.25 Units / 2.51% ROI).
• 96-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.15 Units / 10.43% ROI
• 76-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.1 Units / -7.62% ROI
• 82-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.65 Units / -0.89% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

• Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 74-92 against the Run Line (-20.05 Units / -10.4% ROI).
• 101-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -0.46% ROI
• 77-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.2 Units / -7.79% ROI
• 83-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -1.14% ROI

Bet MLB risk-free up to $1,000 at BetMGM right now! Take advantage below!

Aaron Civale: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Civale has 5 three-pitch strikeouts this month (1 games) — 2nd most among pitchers in MLB — 99th Percentile.

Aaron Civale’s K:BB ratio is 21.0 (21/1) — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.4 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .592 (74 Total Bases / 125 ABs) on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .376 — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (12/21) against Aaron Civale — tied for 6th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 92nd Percentile.

Nestor Cortes: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .113 (8-for-71) against Nestor Cortes on low fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .276 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .162 (72-for-444) against Nestor Cortes’ fastball since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .118 (13-for-110) against Nestor Cortes on low fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .272 — 100th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has a strikeout rate of 50% (12 SO in 24 PAs) this month (1 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 14-9 (.609) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Yankees are 21-122 (.147) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

Guardians hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have 94 extra-base hits out of 349 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters have just 1,159 strikeouts in 6,298 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends

Yankees hitters have drawn 458 walks in 4,623 PA’s (10%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Yankees have a winning percentage of 70% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 351 walks in 3,449 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have walked 25 of 480 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 435 of 5,989 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 88 of 1,460 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends

Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Bet MLB risk-free up to $1,000 at BetMGM right now! Take advantage below!

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.