Yankees-Astros ALCS Odds & Predictions

Yankees-Astros ALCS Odds & Predictions

They’ve been on a collision course all season, and now the Houston Astros and New York Yankees are set to square off in the 2022 ALCS, which begins Wednesday night. These teams met in the ALCS in both 2017 and 2019, so they are quite familiar with one another. The Astros advanced to the World Series on both occasions and are favored to win again this year with Houston’s moneyline set at -215 white the Yankees have a moneyline of +180.

Houston’s Pitching

Surprisingly, Justin Verlander turned out to be the weak link on Houston’s pitching staff during the ALDS. The Mariners hit him for six runs on 10 hits over just 4.0 innings of work. But Verlander is too good and has too much of a postseason pedigree for his struggles to continue into the ALCS. Equally important, the rest of Houston’s pitching staff was outstanding during the rest of the series, picking up Verlander. In the 32.0 innings against the Mariners after Verlander left Game 1, the Astros just three runs.

Framber Valdez flashed his excellent stuff in the ALDS while Lance McCullers threw six scoreless innings against Seattle despite making just eight starts during the regular season. When the Astros have to dig deeper into their rotation, they know they have Luis Garcia, who tossed five scoreless innings out of the bullpen during Houston’s 18-inning win in Game 3. The Astros also showcased plenty of depth in their bullpen with Ryan Presley, Rafael Montero, Ryne Stanek, and Hector Neris all looking sharp in the ALDS and ready to pitch in big spots during the ALCS.

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New York’s Pitching

If the Yankees are going to match Houston’s pitching staff, they’re going to lean heavily on all-stars Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes. Cole won two games during the ALDS and looked very much like an ace. Unfortunately, because Cortes started a delayed Game 5 against the Guardians, he might only be available to start one game in the ALCS. That will force the Yankees to lean heavily on Jameson Taillon and Luis Severino. Taillon didn’t even record an out in his playoff debut while pitching in relief. Meanwhile, Severino allowed three runs on eight hits over 5.2 innings against the Guardians despite looking sharp at times and striking out six.

The Yankees also have some concerns in the bullpen after Clarke Schmidt blew a save during the ALDS. The good news is Clay Holmes and Jonathan Loaisiga were outstanding, combining for 8.1 scoreless innings against the Guardians. Wandy Peralta also proved to be a reliable arm coming out of the bullpen. But the Yankees are going to need more than three good bullpen arms to survive a long series against the Astros.

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Betting Trends

Having the home-field advantage in the ALCS could pay off for the Astros, who had the third-best home record in the majors this year at 57-26 (.687). Of course, they were nearly as good on the road, going 52-30 (.634) during the regular season, as only the Dodgers had a better road record this year. Naturally, the Dodgers were the only team that took care of business as a favorite better than the Astros, who were 99-45 (.688) when they were the betting favorite.

As for the Yankees, they’ll need to take advantage of the three games at Yankee Stadium, as they were the best home team in the majors this year, going 59-25 (.702) at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, the Yanks were a modest 43-40 (.518) on the road and just 5-8 (.385) on the rare occasions they were road underdogs. In fact, they were just 6-8 (.429) as underdogs in 2022, which is relevant because they could be underdogs in most games during this series. They also lost five of their seven head-to-head meetings with the Astros this season.

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Yankees-Astros ALCS Prediction

The Astros have had their way with the Yankees in the past and also took five of the seven head-to-head games between these teams this season. More importantly, the Yankees aren’t going to be able to match Houston’s immense pitching depth, especially if Cortes can only make one start. Look for Houston’s pitching to neutralize the immense power the Yankees have in their lineup. The Yankees won’t be able to win this series with pitching and small ball alone, enabling Houston to beat the Yanks in the ALCS for the third time in the last six years.

PICK: Astros 4-1

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