Phillies-Padres NLCS Odds & Predictions
Here's a betting breakdown of the NLCS featuring the Padres and Phillies
Bryan Zarpentine - Oct 17, 2022, 1:19pm EDT
Phillies-Padres NLCS Odds & Predictions
In a wild and crazy MLB postseason, the two lowest seeds in the National League have ended up in the NLCS. Both the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres failed to win 90 games during the regular season and neither got anywhere close to winning their division. Yet, that’s the matchup we have in the NLCS, which begins Tuesday.
The Phillies won four of the seven head-to-head meetings between these teams during the regular season, although they haven’t met since late June. More importantly, the Padres enter the NLCS as favorites to win the series at -120, while Philadelphia’s moneyline is +105.
Phillies-Padres NLCS Odds & Predictions
In a wild and crazy MLB postseason, the two lowest seeds in the National League have ended up in the NLCS. Both the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres failed to win 90 games during the regular season and neither got anywhere close to winning their division. Yet, that’s the matchup we have in the NLCS, which begins Tuesday.
The Phillies won four of the seven head-to-head meetings between these teams during the regular season, although they haven’t met since late June. More importantly, the Padres enter the NLCS as favorites to win the series at -120, while Philadelphia’s moneyline is +105.
San Diego’s Pitching
The trio of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove has arguably been the biggest advantage for the Padres in both of their playoff series. Each pitcher has made two starts with the trio combining for four wins while the rest of the pitching staff has just one win combined. Darvish and Musgrove, in particular, have both been able to go deep in their starts, helping to save the San Diego bullpen for games started by other pitchers.
As for Snell, he had a rocky outing against the Mets in the wild-card round, but looked excellent against the Dodgers in the NLDS, allowing one run over 5.1 innings. If he can continue to pitch like that, the Padres will feel good about their starter in six of seven games during the NLCS. The only caveat is that Mike Clevinger got beat up in his only playoff start. The good news is the San Diego bullpen has allowed just six runs over 24.2 postseason innings, which is good for a 2.19 ERA. Most of those runs came in one inning and were charged to Adrian Morejon. However, Josh Hader looks like his old self while Robert Suarez has been close to perfect, yielding three hits and no runs in six innings of work out of the bullpen.
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Philadelphia’s Pitching
The Phillies wouldn’t be here without excellent starting pitching against the Cardinals and Braves. Both Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler have delivered, pitching like frontline starters. Nola has been close to perfect, conceding just one unearned run over his 12.2 innings. Wheeler, despite taking a loss to the Braves, has been sharp and did deliver 6.1 scoreless innings against the Cardinals in the wild-card round.
Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez and Noah Syndergaard both gave the Phillies decent starts during the NLDS. Of course, neither was able to reach five innings, putting some pressure on the Philadelphia bullpen. The Phillies had a problematic bullpen during the regular season, and that remains their biggest question mark heading into the NLCS. However, they’ve posted a 4.15 ERA during the playoffs, which has been enough for the Phillies. More importantly, the Philadelphia bullpen hasn’t blown a save and actually has three wins. Seranthony Dominguez has been the star of that unit thus far, striking out eight over 3.2 scoreless innings and allowing just one hit.
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Betting Trends
While the Padres have the home-field advantage in this series, the Phillies were the better home team this year, going 49-34 (.590) at Citizens Bank Park whereas the Padres were just 46-37 (.554) at home. Of course, the Padres were also the fifth-best road team in the majors this year, going 48-38 (.558) away from home. They’ve doubled down on that by winning three of their five road games during the postseason.
Pitching-wise, Wheeler and Nola each made one start against San Diego this year, combining to give up just one run over 14 innings. Snell took two losses against the Phillies this year, as Philly was 30-18 (.625) against left-handed starters during the regular season. In fact, the Phillies were 4-1 against San Diego this year in games started by Darvish, Musgrove or Snell. But as mentioned, these teams haven’t seen each other since late June.
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Padres-Phillies NLCS Prediction
While neither team was overly impressive during the regular season, both teams have earned their way here with the Phillies beating the reigning champs and the Padres beating two teams that won over 100 games this year. Both teams should feel good about their starting pitching, although the Padres have a little more depth there. Meanwhile, the Phillies should feel a little better about how their star hitters have performed in October. But the bullpen is what wins and loses games this time of year, and Philadelphia’s bullpen is far too problematic for the Phillies to survive a long series. Look for the Padres to get just enough offense to complement a deep rotation and a strong bullpen that will carry them to the World Series.
PICK: Padres win series, 4-2.
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