MLB Playoffs: Phillies vs. Braves NLDS Game 3 Odds, Prediction & Player Prop Bets

philadelphia-phillies-vs-atlanta-braves-10-14-2022

Phillies-Braves NLDS Game 3 Odds & Prediction

The Atlanta Braves (+100) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-120) on Friday with first pitch is scheduled for 4:37 p.m. ET. The Braves are betting favorites with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165) and the Over/Under at 7.5 total runs. So far this season, the Braves are 102-62 ATS, while the Phillies are 85-81 ATS.

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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+19.65 Units / 52% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 79 of his last 113 games (+18.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 26 away games (+17.00 Units / 46% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 28 of his last 35 away games (+16.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 29 away games (+16.15 Units / 55% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 49 of his last 82 games (+15.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 39 of his last 77 games (+13.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+13.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+12.90 Units / 42% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 138 games (+25.67 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 114 games (+24.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 59 games (+11.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 55 away games (+10.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 55 away games (+10.10 Units / 16% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+18.33 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+15.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 116 games (+12.70 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 62 of their last 115 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+6.30 Units / 15% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 84-80 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -2.41% ROI).

• 102-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.85 Units / 4.25% ROI
• 81-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -0.96% ROI
• 75-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.95 Units / -7.77% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 85-81 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.05% ROI).

• 90-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.17% ROI
• 83-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -0.82% ROI
• 77-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.15 Units / -7.23% ROI

Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (582/836) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 7 of 299 batters (2%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 70% (1,132/1,605) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 95th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has 5 three-pitch strikeouts this month (2 games) — tied for most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 46-35 (.568) on the road this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Braves Hitting Stats & Trends

Braves hitters are slugging .443 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Braves hitters are slugging .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.

Braves hitters are slugging .443 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Braves hitters are slugging .652 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .575.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Phillies hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 31 total hits (61%) against RHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Phillies are batting .260 at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Braves Pitching Stats & Trends

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.3).

Braves pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,898 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.