MLB Playoffs: BetQL Staff Picks For Thursday, Oct. 13

Today's MLB Best Bets

Another day of MLB games means another day of tough decisions for bettors. To help you make better bets today, the BetQL experts have picked a few of their favorite bets below using the BetQL MLB model's trends and data.

BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of today's best MLB bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL and college football games! Start your free trial today!

Dan Karpuc: Yankees -1.5 vs. Guardians
This is a solid pitching matchup, as Cleveland’s ace Shane Bieber (13-8, 2.88 ERA) will toe the rubber against New York’s Nestor Cortes (12-4, 2.44 ERA). Both of these bullpens were also sensational during the regular season, as the Yankees ranked third with a 2.97 ERA while the Guardians ranked fifth with a 3.05 ERA. However, New York should have an edge at the plate in this specific matchup, if you’re a believer in BvP data (like I am ... if there’s enough of a sample size). Active Yankees players have slashed .294/.385/.618 in 68 career at-bats against Bieber and have slammed six home runs off of him. That’s significant. Meanwhile, active Guardians hitters have slashed .118/.167/.294 against Cortes in 34 at-bats (4-for-34). That’s less significant, but still noteworthy. While Bieber can shut down any lineup if he’s clicking, Yankee Stadium’s design caters perfectly to their lineup that consists of a ton of long-ball threats. Give me the Bronx Bombers to live up to their name and cover the run line in Game 2.

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Lucy Burdge: Astros ML -160 vs. Mariners
It will be Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA) vs. Luis Castillo (8-6, 2.99) in Game 2, and I think the Astros can get another win over the Mariners to take a commanding 2-0 lead in this series. When Valdez faced the Mariners in July, he had eight strikeouts and got the win. Plus, the Astros are 26-7 SU vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or fewer runs per game this season. With these factors in the Astros' favor, I like them to get the win tonight against Seattle.

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Brad Pinkerton: Mariners-Astros F5 Under 3.5

Game 1, which Houston won, 8-7, with a spectacular comeback and walk-off homer, was an anomaly from Verlander's poor start to Yordano's heroic finish. We may not see that many runs for the rest of this series. I fully expect Houston's Framber Valdez (2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23.5 K%, 66.5 GB%) and Seattle's Luis Castillo (2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 27.2 K%) to dominate the first five innings of this game (at least) and keep this first-five total under four runs. In full games, Houston has hit the under 60.4% of the time this season, the highest rate in MLB, including a 33-45 O/U mark at home. If we are indeed in for a low-scoring game here, I also like Mariners +1.5, as Seattle is now 50-34 ATS on road and 51-30 ATS as underdogs after their cover in Game 1's tough loss.

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BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of today's best MLB bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL and college football games! Start your free trial today!