Mariners vs. Astros: ALDS Prediction & Odds

Mariners-Astros: ALDS Prediction & Odds

The MLB playoffs continue on Tuesday, Oct. 11, with the Division Series. In the AL, the Mariners will take on the Astros for a five-game Division Series split between Minute Maid Park in Houston (Games 1, 2, and 5) and T-Mobile Park in Seattle (Games 3 and 4). The winner of this matchup will advance to the AL Championship Series to take on the winner of the Guardians-Yankees series. 

Odds to Win AL Division Series (as of Oct. 10):

• Mariners +180 to win
• Astros -225 to win

Total Series Games Over/Under (as of Oct. 10):

• Over 3.5 (-275)
• Under 3.5 (+220)
• Over 4.5 (+155)
• Under 4.5 (-190)

Mariners vs. Astros Series Prediction

I predict the Mariners will win the AL Division Series against the Astros in five games.

The Astros have had a fantastic year, finishing the regular season on top of the AL West with a record of 106-56. The Mariners, their division rival, came in second at 90-72.

It’s clear from the odds and stats above that the Mariners aren’t going into this series as the favorite, but I truly believe they’re the most underestimated team this postseason and can pull out three wins to advance. 

This is Seattle’s first time in the playoffs since 2002, and if ending a 20-year postseason drought isn’t enough motivation to come in very hot, I don’t know what is. 

In the Wild Card Series, the Mariners beat the Toronto Blue Jays in two games to advance, scoring 4-0 and 10-9 victories in the first and second games, respectively. In the second game, Seattle displayed one of the greatest comebacks in recent memory, trailing 8-1 in the fifth inning before bouncing back spectacularly to win.

As has become a relatively standard reaction to Houston on a winning streak, the Astros’ success in the playoffs this year would likely come with its share of controversy and ridicule. Despite having made appearances in 2019 and 2021, I don’t think there are too many people ready to forgive the team for the 2017 cheating scandal. Having said that, I doubt it’ll stop them playing some fantastic baseball and giving the Mariners a run for their money.

Throughout the regular season, the Mariners and Astros met 19 times and the Astros won 12 games. The Mariners managed seven wins — four at home and three away — so will have to bring their A-game to hold the Astros at bay. Regardless, anything can happen in the postseason, and nobody wants this more than Seattle.

Perhaps I’m just an optimist who loves an underdog, but I’m firmly behind Seattle for this matchup. This will definitely be a series to watch.

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record — Regular Season

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 86-75 against the Run Line (+12 Units / 6.31% ROI).

• 105-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.3 Units / 5.04% ROI
• 60-91 when betting on the total runs Over for -38.8 Units / -22.01% ROI
• 91-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +24.3 Units / 13.62% ROI

Astros Over/Under Record — Regular Season

In the 2022 regular season, the Astros hit the over 60 times, the under 93 times, and pushed 9.

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record — Regular Season

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 83-79 against the Run Line (-7.4 Units / -3.48% ROI).

• 90-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 1.93% ROI
• 75-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -5.96% ROI
• 79-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -1.48% ROI

Mariners Over/Under Record — Regular Season

In the 2022 regular season, the Mariners hit the over 75 times, the under 79 times, and pushed 8.

Mariners Over/Under Record — Postseason

In the 2022 postseason, the Mariners have hit the over 1 time, the under 1 time, and pushed 0.

Rachael Millanta is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM focusing on Major League Baseball. Her work has been published in SB Nation, McSweeney’s Internet Tendency and Slackjaw Humor. Originally from Sydney, Australia, Rachael now resides in Chicago, Illinois.