The Seattle Mariners (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-155) on Thursday with first pitch scheduled for 3:37 p.m. ET. The Astros are betting favorites with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140) and the Over/Under at 7 runs. So far this season, the Mariners are 92-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 86-77 ATS.
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 86-79 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -2.03% ROI).
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 86-77 against the Run Line (+9.95 Units / 5.17% ROI).
Luis Castillo: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 13.1 innings pitched — Sam Hentges has the longest active streak at 24.1.
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 48% (62 SO in 130 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .096 (11-for-114) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 99th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has pitched 12.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Raisel Iglesias has the longest active streak at 25.0.
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (539/783) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (636/933) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 36-15 (.706) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 69-2 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Mariners are 8-65 (.110) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Mariners are 9-59 (.132) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Astros are 86-8 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .219 at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Mariners are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 12% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Astros have allowed 3.27 runs per game (265/81) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
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