MLB Playoffs: Guardians vs. Yankees ALDS Game 3 Odds, Prediction & Player Prop Bets

Yankees vs. Guardians ALDS Game 3 Odds & Prediction

The New York Yankees (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on Saturday with first pitch scheduled for 7:37 p.m. ET. The Yankees are betting favorites with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155) and the Over/Under at 6.5 total runs. So far this season, the Yankees are 100-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 87-79 ATS.

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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+16.55 Units / 57% ROI)
• Josh Donaldson has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.10 Units / 37% ROI)
• DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 23 away games (+13.05 Units / 57% ROI)
• DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 36 away games (+11.35 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 31 games at home (+17.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• Austin Hedges has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.65 Units / 55% ROI)
• Austin Hedges has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.60 Units / 54% ROI)
• Austin Hedges has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Singles Over in 38 of his last 60 games (+11.75 Units / 16% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 away games (+9.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 away games (+9.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+7.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.75 Units / 23% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 88 of their last 147 games (+27.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 79 of their last 147 games (+10.70 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 71 games at home (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games at home (+5.96 Units / 9% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 73-91 against the Run Line (-20.15 Units / -10.56% ROI).

• 100-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -0.39% ROI
• 76-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -14 Units / -7.78% ROI
• 82-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -1.1% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 87-79 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 2.69% ROI).

• 95-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.15 Units / 10.53% ROI
• 75-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.9 Units / -7.61% ROI
• 81-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -0.85% ROI

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Luis Severino: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

The average home run distance against Luis Severino this season is 380.5 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 397.8

Opponents are hitless in 20 AB’s against Luis Severino this month (1 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .196 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .114 (23-for-201) against Luis Severino when ahead in the count this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .191 — 100th Percentile.

Luis Severino has allowed an OBP of just .048 (21 PA’s) this month (1 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .254 — 100th Percentile.

Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (173/514) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (63/195) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .251 (761 PA’s) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 93rd Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .197 (127-for-646) against Triston McKenzie since the start of last season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 94th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 47-35 (.573) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends

Yankees hitters have drawn 162 walks in 1,549 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 351 walks in 3,449 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 465 walks in 4,666 PA’s (10%) against RHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 125 walks in 1,226 PA’s (10%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

Guardians hitters have just 811 strikeouts in 4,643 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .343 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have just 1,149 strikeouts in 6,257 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Yankees pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 447 of 6,086 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 90 of 1,485 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 1,126 of 14,230 batters (8%) since the start of 2020 — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

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