Astros vs. Yankees ALCS Game 1 Odds, Prediction & Player Prop Bets

Astros vs. Yankees ALCS Game 1 Odds & Prediction

The New York Yankees (+165) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-200) on Wednesday, October 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37pm EDT in Houston for this postseason game. The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110). The Yankees vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game. So far this season, the Yankees are 102-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 87-78 ATS. Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence. This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.

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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+16.55 Units / 57% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 38 away games (+13.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Josh Donaldson has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 27 away games (+13.20 Units / 35% ROI)
• DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 23 away games (+13.05 Units / 57% ROI)
• DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI) 

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 46 of his last 81 games at home (+17.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
• Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 37% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 39 games at home (+10.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 96 of their last 152 games (+28.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 93 of their last 163 games (+26.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 102 of their last 149 games (+22.80 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 146 games (+14.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games at home (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 75-92 against the Run Line (-18.75 Units / -9.67% ROI).

• 102-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.35 Units / -0.12% ROI
• 77-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.2 Units / -8.29% ROI
• 84-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -0.6% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 87-78 against the Run Line (+10.45 Units / 5.38% ROI).

• 109-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.3 Units / 6.3% ROI
• 61-94 when betting on the total runs Over for -41.15 Units / -22.77% ROI
• 94-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +26.2 Units / 14.33% ROI

Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .227 (665 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .186 (116-for-625) against Justin Verlander this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .270 (169 Total Bases / 625 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .664 — 100th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 14-9 (.609) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Astros are 43-15 (.741) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters have drawn 351 walks in 3,449 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 268 walks in 2,113 PA’s (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Yankees hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,449 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Astros Hitting Stats & Trends

Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros Pitching Stats & Trends

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 34% against Astros pitchers this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

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BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.