MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Wednesday, May 25
Today's MLB betting odds, trends and picks you need to know
Bryan Zarpentine - May 25, 2022, 1:17pm EDTMLB Betting Playbook for Wednesday
As always, the middle of the week brings us a rather interesting MLB schedule. There are 13 games on the schedule, offering fans and bettors a good mix of day games, evening games, and late-night clashes. It’s a busy schedule, especially with several series coming to an end. Make sure you check out tips from the BetQL model and key betting trends before the games get underway.
One trend to note is that the BetQL model is still on fire with its O/U picks. In the last seven days, BetQL has gone 35-20 (66%) on O/U picks rated ⭐⭐ and higher for a total return of $1,078 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!
MLB BEST BET
Guardians-Astros Under 8.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While taking the under was a safe bet early in the season, things have started to even out. But in the right matchup, taking the under is still a good bet, which is the case with Wednesday’s game between the Guardians and Astros. Even though 17 total runs have been scored during the first two games of this series, 8.5 runs is still a lot with the Astros' bats cooling off and Cleveland’s lineup being far from potent. Keep in mind that nine of Houston’s last 10 games have hit the under, helping make the Astros 12-32 O/U this year, hitting the under 72.7% of the time.
Likewise, both starting pitchers are more than capable of delivering a strong performance. Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill has allowed three runs of less in six of his seven starts and two runs or less in four of his starts. That includes seven strong innings in his last start, allowing just one run. Meanwhile, Houston’s Cristian Javier has been electric out of the bullpen in 2022 and been able to translate that to the rotation. In his last start, Javier allowed just one run on three hits over six innings. There’s a strong chance that runs could be at a premium in this game, especially during the early innings, which is why the BetQL model gives the under four stars.
TOP PLAYER PROPS
J.D. Martinez to Hit a HR vs. White Sox (+340)
Martinez is due for a home run and if you're looking for the perfect opportunity to take his home run prop, this is it. The Red Sox will be going up against Chicago starter Lucas Giolito and Martinez has hit a home run off of Giolito already, so there's a solid chance he can do it again here.
Martinez last hit a home run against the Astros on May 17 to make it five total on the season. And two of those have come in his last 15 games. And Giolito has given up a home run in each of his last two starts. Looking at all of these factors, I would strongly consider the odds for Martinez to hit a home run tonight. -- Lucy Burdge
MORE PICKS: HOME RUN PROPS | STRIKEOUT PROPS
TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS
While he has an uninspiring 4.88 ERA, Zach Thompson is only giving up 4.4 hits per start on the season. At the same time, the Rockies are just 1-12 SU when facing a starter giving up less than 5.5 hits per start. The Rox are also 6-11 on the road this year despite eking out a close win on Tuesday.
The Twins are going for their seventh straight win and their second consecutive series sweep. Somehow, Minnesota still has a losing record ATS this year, although the Twins are 14-2 SU when favored at home.
The Mets have lost just one series this year, which is why they’ve gone 7-1 in rubber matches this season. They’ve also pounded out 25 runs over the first two games of the series despite the Giants coming back to win on Tuesday. However, there is an element of uncertainty with the Mets calling up Thomas Szapucki to make his MLB debut for their injury-riddled rotation against San Francisco’s injury-riddled lineup.
The first two games of this series have been ugly for the Nats, as Los Angeles has outscored them 19-5, giving the Dodgers nine wins in their last 10 games. The stat that says it all is that the Dodgers are averaging 5.6 runs per game on the season while Washington is averaging 3.9 runs per game.
While the Padres lost on Tuesday to set up a rubber match on Wednesday, they have still won eight of their last 11 games. They are also 12-3 SU this year when facing a left-handed starter.
Reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray is just 4-4 over nine starts, although he’s giving up just five hits per start. That’s relevant because the offensive-starved A’s are 0-12 this season when facing a starting pitcher allowing less than 5.5 hits per start. But not all hope is lost for Wednesday’s rubber match, as Oakland is 7-1 SU when Paul Blackburn starts.
Cincy’s hot streak could be over after the Cubs took the first two games of this series, outscoring the Reds 18-8. Nevertheless, the Reds are favored on Wednesday, although they are just 2-4 SU as a favorite this year while the Cubs are 9-8 SU as a road underdog.
The Rays have a chance to sweep a two-game set against their Florida rivals after beating the Marlins 4-0 on Tuesday. With Tuesday’s loss, the Marlins have lost 13 in a row against AL East teams that have a winning record. Plus, the Rays are 7-1 this year when Drew Rasmussen starts.
The Yankees have won four of their six head-to-head matchups with the Orioles in May. However, three of those wins have come by one run, making Baltimore 5-1 ATS in those six games. That has helped give the Orioles the third-best ATS record in the majors at 26-18 while the Yankees are just 10-13 ATS as home favorites.
The fun in Atlanta is just beginning after these two teams split the first two games of their four-game series. While the Braves won Tuesday’s game, they have lost eight of their last nine games when they’re coming off a win and favored at home. Keep in mind that Atlanta is 11-12 SU and 7-16 ATS at home this year.
As mentioned above, the Astros are the best team in the majors at hitting the under and have done so in nine of their last 10 home games. Granted, the Guardians have hit the over more than the under this year, but the Astros are giving up just 3.2 runs per game.
Even a six-game winning streak and a 16-3 shellacking of the White Sox on Tuesday isn’t enough to make Boston a road favorite on Wednesday. The good news for the Red Sox is they are 14-8 ATS as an underdog this year.
This is already the third time Reid Detmers has faced the Rangers this season. He’s pitched a total of seven innings over the first two starts, allowing eight runs on nine hits. However, Detmers will be facing a Texas team that’s lost three in a row and scored just 10 total runs in its last five games.
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