MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Friday, October 21

MLB Betting Playbook for Thursday

There’s a busy baseball weekend ahead of us, and it begins with Game 3 of the NLCS on Friday night. With the series tied 1-1, this could end up being the most important game of the series. Let’s get ready for it by looking at the best betting options and key trends for Friday’s Padres-Phillies game.

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Phillies ML

The betting odds are even for this game, but give a little edge to the Phillies at home. More importantly, this is likely the last game in the series that everyone in the Philadelphia bullpen will be fully rested. That’s critical because the Phillies will need to the small collection of reliable bullpen arms to be ready to get key outs. Plus, Ranger Suarez has strong numbers against most of San Diego’s hitters.

The entire roster is a combined .170 against Suarez, who pitched 7.1 innings against the Padres earlier this season, allowing just two runs and picking up the win. He should give the Philadelphia lineup a chance to get going offensively without falling behind early, allowing the Phillies to feed off the energy of the home crowd and get a win.

Joe Musgrove Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)

With the way Musgrove has thrown the ball during the postseason, 5.5 strikeouts feels a little low. Including the end of the regular season, Musgrove has struck out at least seven batters in four of his last six starts, reaching eight strikeouts in three of those starts, including his NLDS start against the Dodgers.

Meanwhile, Musgrove also has a long history of striking out the key members of Philadelphia’s lineup. Nick Castellanos has seven strikeouts in 18 career at-bats against Musgrove. Bryce Harper has seven strikeouts in 14 career at-bats against him. Kyle Schwarber has struck out in eight of his 16 career at-bats against Musgrove. Also, Rhys Hoskins is 0-for-8 with three strikeouts in his career against the San Diego starter. While the Phillies have a lot of power, they can be vulnerable when it comes to striking out, and Musgrove should be able to take advantage of that.

Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)

There might be no better hitter to bet on right now than Harper. He’s gone 13 for 31 (.419) during the postseason with four home runs and four doubles. He’s also 3-for-8 with seven total bases over the first two games of this series. It’s just going to take one extra-base hit to put Harper over 1.5 total bases, and with the way he’s swinging the bat, it’d be surprising if that didn’t happen.

Granted, he’s just 3-for-14 in his career against Musgrove with no extra-base hits. But Musgrove will have to deal with Harper at his best while Harper should get at least one or two at-bats against the San Diego bullpen, so it’s not a stretch for him to get a pair of singles or an extra-base hit.

Austin Nola Over 0.5 RBI (+280)

Nola has arguably been San Diego’s most clutch player during the postseason. While he hits at the bottom of the order, he’s one of four Padres with five RBIs during the postseason, one behind team-leader Manny Machado, who has six.

Nola also has the best batting average and the second-most hits on San Diego’s roster during the playoffs, going 9-for-28 (.321) with a pair of doubles. He’s also the only member of the Padres with more than one career hit against Ranger Suarez, going 2-for-4 with a double against Philadelphia’s Game 3 starter. If he comes up with a runner in scoring position, Nola is a good bet to drive in a run, and it’s worth the bet at +280.

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