MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Thursday, Oct. 20

MLB Betting Playbook for Thursday

Game 2 of the ALCS is the only game on the schedule Thursday, so we can give the Astros and the Yankees our full attention. Game 1 was mostly dominated by pitching with the Astros getting the early lead. As the Yankees try to even up the series, let’s take a look at some of the best betting options in Game 2.

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Astros ML (-165)

The Astros aren’t favored by as big of a margin as they were on Wednesday, meaning there is a little more value in taking Houston to win straight up. Just about everything in Game 1 went Houston’s way, as the Astros got six innings from Justin Verlander and didn’t have to overuse their bullpen. They also got home runs from three different players, although none came from the 3-5 hitters in the order. Plus, with Wednesday’s win, the Astros are now 4-0 against the Yankees at Minute Maid Park this year, so look for their domination over the Yanks at home to continue.

Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)

With Valdez, the Astros have a big advantage when it comes to starting pitching. The lefty hasn’t faced the Yankees this year, although he looked sharp against the Mariners during the ALDS, striking out six over 5.2 innings. There’s no reason to think he won’t be able to keep it going and pitch deep enough into the game to get to five strikeouts. Since the start of June, there’s only been three occasions in 22 starts in which Valdez has failed to reach five strikeouts, making his a relatively safe bet.

Giancarlo Stanton Over 0.5 Home Runs (+500)

It’s been back-to-back games that Stanton has homered, and there’s too much value in hime hitting another home run in Game 2 to ignore. Keep in mind that when the Yankees made a run in the 2020 postseason, Stanton hit six home runs in seven games, so it’s possible he’s just getting started. He now has 11 career postseason home runs in 24 games and a postseason slugging percentage of .690. While he’s just 4-for-20 in this year’s postseason, three of those hits have gone for extra bases. He’s also 4-for-8 with a double and a home run in his career against Framber Valdez, so Stanton matches up well against Houston’s starter, leaving the door open for another homer.

Yuli Gurriel 2+ Total Bases & Jeremy Pena 2+ Total Bases (+450)

Some of Houston’s biggest hits in the postseason have come from the team’s supporting cast rather than the middle-of-the-order hitters. That creates a ton of value for a parlay like this. Gurriel had a subpar regular season but has come alive in the playoffs, going 7 for 19 (.368) with a pair of home runs. He’s also 7-for-21 (.333) with a pair of doubles in his career against Luis Severino. He’s poised to get multiple hits or an extra-base hit in Game 2 to continue his hot streak during the postseason.

Meanwhile, Pena has made the Astros forget all about former shortstop Carlos Correa. He’s 7-for-20 (.350) with three doubles and two home runs in his first four postseason games, so he’s hit the ground running. While the rookie is yet to face Severino, he looks locked in at the plate regardless of who’s pitching. Plus, as the No. 2 hitter in the order, he’ll get at least four or five at-bats in Game 2, giving him plenty of chances to get at least two total bases, especially after going 3-for-4 on Wednesday.

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