MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Tuesday, Oct. 19

MLB Betting Playbook for Wednesday

Wednesday’s MLB schedule features a doubleheader with both League Championship Series in action. The National League gets the matinee for Game 2 while the ALCS is in primetime following the belated conclusion of the ALDS on Tuesday. With the final four teams alive for the World Series finally set, let’s check out some of the best betting options available for Wednesday’s postseason games.

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PICK #1: Over 6.5 Runs

Game 1 of the NLCS was a pitcher’s duel, but that could change in Game 2. With the over/under set at 6.5 runs, the BetQL is giving four stars to the over. Before Tuesday’s game, four of Philadelphia’s six playoff games ended with at least nine runs, so low-scoring affairs is not normal for them. Likewise, five of San Diego’s eight postseason games have ended with at least eight runs. That should make Tuesday’s game an anomaly, making the over a wise pick.

Blake Snell could be particularly vulnerable against the Philadelphia lineup early in the game. In his two starts against the Phillies this year, he pitched 9.1 innings, allowing seven runs on nine hits. In his career, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, and J.T. Realmuto have all homered against him. Meanwhile, the Padres are apt to score late when the Phillies go to their bullpen. Plus, the San Diego lineup is too good to stay quiet on consecutive days, so the Padres should get going sooner or later and help push the total over 6.5 runs.

PICK #2: Aaron Nola 5+ Strikeouts and Juan Soto 2+ total bases (+300)

Nola has been so good in his two postseason starts that five strikeouts is a conservative estimate. He has six strikeouts in each of his two starts in the playoffs and has failed to reach five strikeouts just once in his last 17 starts. Nola also struck out 10 in his only start against the Padres this season. Feel free to go for more, but five strikeouts is close to a sure thing when putting together a same-game parlay.

Ironically, seeing Nola on the mound could be what Soto needs to get going. He’s just 7 for 31 (.226) in the playoffs with just one extra-base hit. But he’s 9 for 33 (.273) with two doubles and three home runs in his career against Nola. He’s also taken 14 walks to give him a 1.095 OPS against Philly’s ace, so he seems to see the ball well with Nola on the mound. Whether it’s another extra-base hit or a pair of singles, look for Soto to get his bat going in Game 2 even if Nola has early success against the rest of the San Diego lineup.

PICK #1: Astros -1.5 Runs

There isn't enough value for a Houston straight-up win in Game 1, but banking on the Astros to win by at least two runs is still a good bet. The Yankees are surely coming off an emotional high after clinching the ALDS on Tuesday. But they also had to travel to Houston overnight and will need to refocus quickly. After Jameson Taillon’s trouble during his relief appearance against the Guardians during the ALDS, he may not be able to give them the type of pitching performance the Yankees need from him. As long as Justin Verlander can bounce back from his terrible start in Game 1 of the ALDS, the Astros will be poised to get off to a fast start. Of their five wins over the Yankees during the regular season, three came by at least two runs.

PICK #2: Jose Altuve Over 0.5 Hits and Astros Over 4.5 Runs (+215 on DraftKings)

Altuve was MIA during the ALDS, going 0 for 16 at the plate with six strikeouts and just one walk against the Mariners. But a player of his caliber and postseason experience should be able to turn things around. He’s also 4 for 9 with two doubles in his career against James Taillon, so he’s a good bet to get back on track.

Of course, if Altuve gets going, the rest of the Houston lineup will follow. Plus, most of the Astros have a good history against Taillon. Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman are both 2 for 6 with a home run against New York’s Game 1 starter. Kyle Tucker and Christian Vazquez are a combined 7 for 14 with five extra-base hits in their careers against Taillon. Look for Altuve to be the spark plug and help the Astros score at least five runs in Game 1.

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