MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Saturday, Oct. 15
Today's MLB betting odds, trends and picks you need to know
Brad Pinkerton - Oct 15, 2022, 10:22am EDT
MLB Betting Playbook for Saturday
Saturday isn't just about college football. Today we get four MLB playoff games with both LDS in action. First up, the Braves take on the Phillies in NLDS Game 4 at 2:07 p.m. ET, followed by Astros-Mariners ALDS Game 3 at 4:07. This evening brings Yankees-Guardians ALDS Game 3 at 7:37, followed by Dodgers-Padres NLDS Game 4. Let's take a look at the odds and key betting trends for each game below.
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TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS
The Phillies enter Game 4 with a 2-1 lead looking to close out the defending champion Braves. The Phillies are actually underdogs, though, which may be a good thing for them considering they're 36-22 ATS as 'dogs vs. just 49-60 ATS as favorites. That said, the Braves are 90-41 SU as favorites and 49-30 SU in against NL East opponents this season. And while coaching Atlanta, Brian Snitker is 80-52 after a loss where the Braves scored one run or less, and 105-48 SU vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or fewer per game in the second half of the season, so don't count the Braves out quite yet.
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The Astros take a commanding 2-0 series lead into Game 3 at Seattle, but this game is still a pick 'em. The Mariners are just 36-45 ATS at home, but it will be important to watch for line movement before first pitch. Seattle is just 35-49 ATS as favorites, second-worst among LDS teams, and 17-34 ATS as home favs, worst among the remaining playoff teams. However, they are also 51-31 ATS as underdogs, including 19-11 ATS as home 'dogs. Meanwhile, the Astros are 16-5 ATS as underdogs, including 14-4 ATS on the road, both of which are the best marks in MLB.
With the spread too close to call for now, the best play might be the under: Houston is 61-94 O/U, the best "unders" rate in MLB, including 28-48 O/U on road, also the best under rate in MLB. The Astros are also 21-39 O/U as road favs, while the Mariners are 9-19 O/U as home 'dogs.
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The Guardians managed to tie the series at one game apiece heading to Cleveland, but are still home 'dogs in Game 3. It's worth noting that Cleveland is 47-34 ATS as underdogs, but an uninspiring 13-18 as home 'dogs. That said, the Yankees are just 73-91 ATS, fourth-worst in MLB. That includes 35-46 ATS on the road (second worst in MLB), 63-87 ATS as favorites (third worst among LDS teams) and just 26-42 ATS as road favs (worst in LDS), so this is a great spot to back the Guardians +1.5.
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The Padres hold a surprising 2-1 series lead over the Dodgers, who have been World Series favorites all season. While San Diego does hold home-field advantage, it's important to note that the Padres are just 30-52 ATS at home, worst in MLB, while the favored Dodgers have the second-best ATS record overall (98-67) and third-best on the road (48-34) among LDS teams, including a 45-32 mark as road favs, best among all playoff teams.
The Dodgers also have a 31-46 O/U record on the road and a 28-44 O/U mark as road favorites, while the Padres are 4-10 O/U as home 'dogs, so this could be another low-scoring scrap.
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