MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Wednesday, Oct. 12
Today's MLB betting odds, trends and picks you need to know
Bryan Zarpentine - Oct 12, 2022, 3:10pm EDT
MLB Betting Playbook for Wednesday
The first day of the NLDS got started with a bang on Tuesday with two one-run games, including one that ended with a walk-off homer. The other two games weren’t exactly short on drama either. Today, the American League will take the day off, giving the National League the spotlight. Let’s take a closer look at both of the NLDS games on Wednesday to find the key trends and best bets.
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MLB BEST BET
Clayton Kershaw Over 4.5 Ks & Yu Darvish over 5.5 Ks
The top bet for Wednesday’s games might be banking on a pitcher’s duel between Clayton Kershaw and Yu Darvish. While both the Dodgers and Padres have plenty of offensive firepower, these two aces have been outstanding down the stretch. Both pitchers may not go deep in this game if things don’t go well, but the strikeout totals are well within reach for both pitchers.
A parlay of Kershaw with at least five strikeouts and Darvish with at least six strikeouts on DraftKings creates a lucrative +235 moneyline for bettors -- and you can get an odds boost for every leg you add (3 legs is 20%, up to 10 legs for 100%) using DK's Stepped-Up SGP promo today. Plus, new DraftKings users get $200 in free bets just for depositing and betting $5!
Since he returned from the IL in September, Kershaw has only failed to get to five strikeouts once in seven starts. He’s averaged seven strikeouts per game across those seven starts, so there is plenty of room for error if he only needs five. Also, the last time he faced the Padres in early July, Kershaw struck out eight in seven scoreless innings.
Darvish, meanwhile, has had equal success striking out batters down the stretch despite only having four strikeouts against the Mets last week. Darvish had nine consecutive starts with at least six strikeouts to close out the regular season, including nine strikeouts when he faced the Dodgers in early September. Both he and Kershaw should be able to continue their recent success in the postseason, where most aces have had plenty of success thus far.
TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS
The Braves made a nice comeback after a sluggish start, but still fell one run short in Game 1. Now the Braves are in danger of going to Philly this weekend down 2-0 in the NLDS. On the bright side, the Braves were the third-best team in baseball this year at bouncing back from a loss, going 40-21 (.656) when coming off a loss. They also have 21-game winner Kyle Wright on the mound, winning the last nine games that Wright started during the regular season. Of course, now the Braves are a modest 6-4 when hosting the Phillies this year.
On the flip side, the Braves will be facing Georgia native Zack Wheeler in Game 2. Including last week’s wild-card game against the Cardinals, Wheeler has made four starts since coming back from the IL. However, he’s allowed just one run over 21.1 innings across those four starts, yielding 11 hits and two walks. Wheeler also got the win when he faced the Braves in Atlanta in early August, allowing one run over seven innings. While the Phillies are still underdogs, Philadelphia was 20-22 (.476) as a road underdog this year, giving them the sixth-best record in the majors as a road underdog, so stealing a second straight road game isn’t out of the question.
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Despite being out-hit and going scoreless in the final five innings, the Dodgers took Game 1 on Tuesday, 5-3. With that win, they have now won eight of their last nine night games at home. Including Tuesday’s win, the Dodgers are now 9-2 against the Padres at home this year. There’s also the matter of the Dodgers winning six of the seven games that Clayton Kershaw has started since he returned from the IL in September. Also, while Kershaw has had past problems in the playoffs, he was 4-1 with a 2.93 ERA over five starts the last time he pitched in the postseason in 2020.
To be fair, the Padres were one of three teams in the majors this year to have a winning record as road underdogs, going 21-18 (.539) in that situation. Naturally, they had the fourth-best road record in the National League at 47-38 (.553), so they can win on the road. The Padres will also be thrilled to have Yu Darvish starting Game 2. He was locked in against the Mets last weekend and helped the Padres win six of his last seven starts during the regular season. That stretch included seven scoreless innings at Dodger Stadium in which he allowed just two hits. The only caveat is that while Darvish posted a 0.95 WHIP this year, the Dodgers went 17-2 at home against NL starters with a WHIP under 1.15.
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