Betting Impact of Joe Flacco Replacing Anthony Richardson as Colts’ Starting QB

Anthony Richardson failed to live up to expectations in his first 10 NFL starts, dating back to last season. He also failed to ensure his conditioning was up to the standard it needs to be as a starting NFL quarterback.

Richardson got “tired” and “needed a break” in the third quarter of Sunday’s game against the Texans. Backup QB Joe Flacco came into the game for one snap before Richardson returned.

Two days later, the Colts announced that they’ve benched Richardson and will be starting Flacco for the foreseeable future. However, head coach Shane Steichen told reporters that this decision wasn’t a result of Richardson needing to catch his breath. Still, with Flacco taking over, there are a few different betting implications that Colts backers should keep an eye out for.

Impact on Point Spreads

The betting market perceives Flacco to be a slight upgrade from Richardson. The Colts opened as 6-point underdogs to the Vikings this weekend, but after the QB change, that line has moved down Indianapolis +5.5.

Richardson has been inconsistent at best with a 44.4% completion percentage - the second-lowest of any player in the past 20 years with at least 100 pass attempts in a season. He is also extremely careless with the ball, racking up seven interceptions to just four touchdowns this year.

Flacco might be on the tail end of his career, but he offers a much more consistent passing game. Plus, if his 4-1 record after taking over as the Browns starting QB late last season is any indication of what the Colts are in for, the slight adjustment in this Sunday’s spread is certainly warranted.

Props Market Shifts

The change to Flacco should notably impact prop betting. With Richardson, rushing yard props were a staple due to his frequent scrambling, but with Flacco, the Colts will rely more heavily on the passing game. Flacco’s passing props will be set significantly higher than Richardson and the over on his attempts and yards will be in play each week. Additionally, Flacco’s reliance on quick releases could boost reception numbers for running back Jonathan Taylor and slot receiver Josh Downs, with potential value on overs for short-yardage targets.

Betting the Colts Moving Forward

The Colts still have an uphill battle when it comes to making the playoffs. Their loss to the Texans on Sunday made it nearly impossible to win the division because that win gave Houston the series sweep. Still, it’s clear that the market respects Flacco because Indy’s odds to make the postseason moved from +150 before Week 8 to +125 heading into Week 9.

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