Bettors Love Paul Skenes' Chances To Win NL Cy Young
Can the rookie win the most prestigious pitching award in his first year?
Matthew Horner - Aug 5, 2024, 8:13pm EDT
BetMGM Data
Every professional sports bettor knows that having the sportsbook data on where the money and tickets are going can be invaluable information to have when handicapping a wager. This can often tell you where the big bets are and where the sharp bettors are placing their money, so it is always smart to know this stuff. We get a futures report on nearly every market each week from BetMGM, showing us this information, and I like to share these insights with you to help you make smarter and more informed bets.
Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes is the overwhelming favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year with how good he has been this season, but what about his chances to win the Cy Young Award in his very first year on the hill?
That would be an incredible feat, especially since he started his season way after everyone else.
In 14 games and 86.0 total innings of work to this point, Skenes owns a 1.99 ERA, with a 2.58 xERA and 2.67 xFIP. Those numbers say that some regression is on the way for him, which with an ERA as low as 1.99, shouldn't be a shock. It is incredibly hard to keep a number that low, no matter how good you are.
Regardless, bettors clearly think he is going to win the award. A whopping 21.4% of the total handle is on Skenes, with 17% of the tickets. No one has more tickets or money on them to win than he does, yet, he is still not the favorite in the market at +160 odds. That distinction belongs to Chris Sale at +120, who is getting 13.1% of the handle and 6% of the tickets.
Best Bet
Personally, I would not bet on Skenes to win the award.
There is simply too much money on this wager now, and the public is all over this.
In fact, his presence has now made the Pirates (+10000) the sportsbooks' biggest liability to win the NL Pennant. All of that has scared me away at this point. I still am a fan of Tyler Glasnow (+5000) for a longshot bet. He is due for some massive positive regression going forward (3.50 ERA, 2.60 xERA, 2.67 xFIP).