Back the Phillies to Win the NL East Division in 2025

It seems like just yesterday that the Dodgers and Yankees were playing in the World Series, and before you know it, baseball will be back. While there are still some free agents that have yet to sign, and we don’t know the full rosters of these teams, we pretty much have a clear picture of what these teams will be at this point. Now is the time to try to get ahead on some futures bets, and there is one in particular that I feel is quite valuable.

When it comes to futures, I usually like to back favorites, because the books fear longshots far more. A team that I am looking to back early here is the Philadelphia Phillies, who continue to come up just short of winning a title. This team has all the pieces to do so, they just have to put those pieces together and get hot at the right time. With this current roster, they should be right back to competing for a championship, and I like the value on some of their futures, especially to win the National League East at +200 (BetMGM).

I know the New York Mets just signed Juan Soto, but I think because of that hype, they are now overvalued in the market at +165. There is a certain tax you pay on these teams that make a big splash. Despite their throwing around cash, I am not convinced that they are really any better than they were last season. I am particularly concerned with their pitching staff, which I think was very lucky in 2024 to have the numbers they did. Guys like Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, and David Peterson all had indicators that some significant regression is coming. While Quintana is gone, I am not impressed with Frankie Montas or Griffin Canning.

The Braves are easily the biggest threat to the Phillies in my opinion, and as long as their offense can stay healthy this year, they are going to be a force. They are the favorite to win the NL East at +150, and I would agree with that. Ronald Acuna should be back to 100%, and hopefully he can return to be the player we know. I hardly have to talk about their pitching staff, which includes Cy Young winner Chris Sale, and the return of superstar Spencer Strider to health as well. The Braves were plagued by so many injuries in 2024, and it was actually impressive that they even made the playoffs. As long as they are healthy, they are a serious contender.

Still, I like the value on Philly at +200 to take the division. As mentioned, they just need to figure out how to get the offense and pitching staff to play well at the same time, as they have experienced inconsistent play from one or the other like many teams do. Outside of the Dodgers, I think you would be hard pressed to find a better overall pitching staff than the Phillies. Zach Wheeler is one of the best arms in MLB, with a 4.7 WAR and some of the best advanced numbers in baseball. Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sanchez each own a 3.2 WAR, and have been as consistent as they come. Ranger Suarez, who I am not quite as enamored with as his numbers would make him seem, is still a very solid pitcher. The addition of Jesus Luzardo gives them a very high upside starter as well.

Overall, I think there is good value on Philly at +200 to win the NL East. I think books are overvaluing the Mets, and the Phillies should only be slight underdogs behind Atlanta.

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