Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani World Series Game 1 Prop Bets

Two of the biggest names in the sport of baseball will face off in the 2024 World Series when Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees take on Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers. All eyes will be on the two superstars as they step up to the plate, and a lot of bank accounts will also be involved in what they do in this series. Not only are a ton of people betting on Ohtani and Judge to win World Series MVP but even in the individual games, you are going to see a very high handle on these two and their props.

Over at BetMGM, the top two most wagered-on player props for Game 1 on Friday night involve these two stars. Aaron Judge to hit a home run is +200 and is the most bet prop in the game right now. Coming in right behind that prop is, you could probably have guessed, Ohtani to hit a home run at +210 odds. Obviously, home run props are always going to be very popular in the market, and seeing these two top the list with those two props is less than shocking.

However, I feel there are better ways to attack them here than these props that don’t really grant you a ton of value. Yes, they can certainly hit a home run in Game 1 and they have immense power and capability to do so. But that also is why their odds to hit one are so incredibly poor at only 2/1. If you want to play something on their ability to hit for power, perhaps taking them to hit a double would be a more profitable option.

Judge is +450 to hit a double in Game 1, while Ohtani is +370. I understand the thought of “if he hits a double, it’s likely going to be a home run” but I still feel there is more value here. I’d rather get 4.5/1 odds that either one of these guys manages to hit the ball into the gap to the wall and come up with a double in a clutch situation to drive in some runs.

Fading Judge is something that I am fond of in the playoffs, where he has routinely batted below .200 with many strikeouts. I think taking Judge +185 to strike out in his first at-bat, which is priced at +185, is some great value.

Judge and Ohtani are both +115 to get an RBI, which doesn't hold a ton of value, but they both do bat in a very advantageous place in the lineup for that. I am not very fond of either starting pitcher in Game 1.

Gerrit Cole is someone I have talked about before as being a reduced version of the pitcher that we have come to know. His stats have continued to move in a downward direction for three straight seasons, and he had his worst xFIP this season at 3.99 he’s had since 2016. In the postseason through three starts, he owns a 5.39 xFIP. I’d look at his Under 15.5 outs recorded.

Jack Flaherty has equally had serious issues down the stretch and has a 5.86 xFIP in his starts this postseason. I think he’s starting to show some serious fatigue from the most number of innings he has ever pitched in his career. He will be pitching on regular rest, however, and he’s been crushed mostly when he has pitched with short rest.

Best Bets: Aaron Judge First At-Bat Result: Strikeout (+185), Shohei Ohtani To Hit A Double (+370)

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