Tampa Bay Rays vsKansas City Royals Prediction
The Kansas City Royals are 7-4 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Tampa Bay Rays who are 6-4 on the road this season. The Royals have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Royals' starter Jake Junis is forecasted to have a better game than Rays' starter Michael Wacha. Jake Junis has a 53% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Michael Wacha has a 39% chance of a QS. If Jake Junis has a quality start the Royals has a 77% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 6.7 and he has a 46% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Royals win 61%. In Michael Wacha quality starts the Rays win 66%. He has a 28% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 66% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Kansas City Royals is Carlos Santana who averaged 2.43 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 43% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Royals have a 69% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Tampa Bay Rays is Austin Meadows who averaged 2.15 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 36% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Rays have a 53% chance of winning.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction
The Tampa Bay Rays will look to stay hot and sweep their second consecutive series on Wednesday when they face the Tampa Bay Rays. Despite the Rays winning the first two games of the series by a combined score of 18-8, the oddsmakers have even odds for Wednesday’s game with both the Rays and Royals having a moneyline of -110.
Kansas City Royals Preview
Despite losing back-to-back games, the Royals are hanging onto first place in the AL Central. Before the Rays came to town, the Royals had won six of their last eight games, so dropping a couple of games isn’t the end of the world. Of course, Kansas City began the season with low expectations, so the Royals can’t afford to lose too many games without suffering a hit to their confidence.
It could be up to starting pitcher Jakob Junis to get KC back on track. Junis had a rough 2020 season in more ways than one, which forced him to start the season pitching out of the bullpen. But after two strong relief appearances, Junis joined the rotation and has continued to pitch well. Over his two starts, he’s pitched 10 innings, conceding just two runs on six hits while striking out 12. It’s possible that the 28-year-old is finally starting to figure some things out. However, he also owns an unimpressive 4.70 career ERA.
The Royals also have plenty to figure out offensively. Both Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez have started to slump over the past week after carrying the Royals early in the season. The good news is that Carlos Santana has started to heat up, as both he and Merrifield had big games on Tuesday. But the bottom half of the Kansas City lineup hasn’t produced much this year, leaving the Royals with limited options offensively.
Tampa Bay Rays Preview
Not long ago, the Rays were 5-8 and some were wondering if the reigning American League champs would fall into obscurity in 2021. But after sweeping the Yankees in a three-game series over the weekend, Tampa has taken two in a row in Kansas City. The Rays are now 10-8 and within two games of the first place Red Sox.
Tampa will look to Michael Wacha on Wednesday to help them stay hot. After a troubling 2020 season, Wacha looked a little shaky in his first couple of starts this year. But he turned things completely around last weekend against the Yankees, striking out nine over six scoreless frames while allowing just one hit and a walk. Wacha hasn’t looked that good since 2018, and the Rays can only hope the 29-year-old has rediscovered his old form and can deliver similar performances moving forward.
The Rays are also hoping that Tuesday’s 14-run outburst in Kansas City is also a sign of things to come. Outside of Joey Wendle, Tampa hasn’t received much consistency offensively this season. However, the quartet of Austin Meadows, Randy Arozarena, Willy Adames, and Brandon Lowe all had multiple hits on Tuesday. If two or three players from that group can start to catch fire, the Rays will look a lot more formidable offensively.
Full Game Prediction
In a game that has even betting odds, the BetQL model is leaning toward the Rays completing the sweep of Kansas City and winning their sixth straight game. Our model gives the Rays a 55% chance of winning, making this a three-star selection. With Wacha pitching brilliantly in his last start and the Tampa offense coming alive on Tuesday, there are a lot of reasons to believe that the Rays can keep it going. Even with some of their offensive struggles, the Rays are averaging more than a home run per game this season, so they have the potential to power their way to victory. Also, Tampa manager Kevin Cash is 74-54 in his career in games after his team scored eight runs or more. That’s a sign that the Rays are poised to continue their offensive explosion on Wednesday.
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