Tampa Bay Rays vs

Boston Red Sox Prediction

The Boston Red Sox are 20-16 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Tampa Bay Rays who are 15-18 on the road this season. The Red Sox have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Red Sox' starter Austin Davis is forecasted to have a better game than Rays' starter Jalen Beeks. Austin Davis has a 45% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Jalen Beeks has a 34% chance of a QS. If Austin Davis has a quality start the Red Sox has a 79% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.7 and he has a 12% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Red Sox win 58%. In Jalen Beeks quality starts the Rays win 66%. He has a 23% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 66% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Boston Red Sox is Rafael Devers who averaged 2.82 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 52% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Red Sox have a 70% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Tampa Bay Rays is Ji-Man Choi who averaged 2.83 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 52% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Rays have a 51% chance of winning.